Simpich writes: "Bernie Sanders is on course for strong performances at the
Iowa caucuses on February 1st and in the New Hampshire primary on the 9th.
He may make a credible showing at the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina
primary later in February. But how does Bernie get past Super Tuesday on the
first of March?"
Current Super Tuesday states. (image: Real Clear Politics)
How Does Bernie Sanders Deal With Super Tuesday?
By Bill Simpich, Reader Supported News
23 August 15
Bernie Sanders is on course for strong performances at the Iowa caucuses on
February 1st and in the New Hampshire primary on the 9th. He may make a
credible showing at the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary later
in February. But how does Bernie get past Super Tuesday on the first of
March?
Alabama and Arkansas - ugh. Colorado caucuses - potential? Georgia - tough.
Massachusetts and the Minnesota caucuses - could be good. North Carolina,
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas - whoa, with the Lone Star State the largest
prize of the day. Vermont - Bernie's home state. Virginia - Hillary
territory.
Most insurgent candidates simply don't get past Super Tuesday. Gary Hart in
1984, Bill Bradley in 2000, Howard Dean in 2004, you get the picture. The
twelve races are tilted to the South and favor the candidate with national
strength and deep roots in the African American and Latino communities. What
strategy can enable Bernie Sanders to go all the way?
Ask Nate Silver, who is the go-to guy for a lot of us. At his
number-crunching website FiveThirtyEight, Silver recently raised the odds
that Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic nomination to 5%. His analysis:
I still think it needs to involve some "shock" (as an economist would define
that term) to the Clinton campaign. Meaning some substantially worse turn in
the email scandal than what's been reported so far. Hackers publish a bunch
of top-secret documents culled from Clinton's emails, for instance. Or a new
scandal. Or a health problem.
In that event, Democratic elites would probably turn toward another
establishment candidate. Most likely Joe Biden. But while I'm pretty sure
that Sanders can't beat Clinton head-to-head - he's losing to her badly now,
after all - I'm not so sure that's true of Biden, etc.
I think Sanders vs. Biden, in a world where the Democratic establishment is
in disarray because of a Clinton crisis, could be highly competitive. And
Bernie's organizational advantages - e.g., in the caucus states - could help
him against a candidate who is getting off to a very late start.
Another angle on Bernie's problem brought up by Silver's team is that
endorsements from governors, senators, and congressional members are thought
to be the most important variable to consider as a predictor of success.
Bernie does not have a single endorsement from any of them. See this chart
provided by FiveThirtyEight.
Here's a related dilemma: pragmatic voters are going to be reluctant to vote
for Bernie if it doesn't seem that he is going to be able to govern
effectively. Where are the legislators who are willing to work hard to
realize Sanders's vision? Very few of them presently can be found in
Congress - and how are they going to get there by 2016? How can he build a
base of like-minded legislators? It's no accident that he's calling for a
political revolution.
And, of course, Sanders has to win over huge numbers of African Americans
and Latinos in order to halt the Hillary juggernaut. Is it possible? In a
nod to Black Lives Matter, Bernie has adjusted his platform to note that
unless structural racism ends, economic justice is impossible. But he still
has to peel an incredible number of voters away from Hillary.
Nonetheless, Bernie continues to build momentum. He just won the endorsement
of the 185,000-member National Nurses United. He is coming off a successful
campaign swing through South Carolina. Believe it or not, even The New York
Times on Friday exclaimed that the 73-year old Sanders has "recaptured the
enthusiasm that fueled the 2008 Obama campaign."
What Bernie is bringing to the 2016 race has nothing to do with his
heritage, his pallor, or his coiffure. He has based his career and now this
campaign on the belief that the vast majority of people agree with the
fundamentals of his platform for economic justice. The unifying core of his
message is that the billionaires can't have it all. The strength of his
belief in the common sense of the people is about to be tested. He could
change American politics in a very positive way. As Tom Frank called for in
his book What's the Matter with Kansas?, we may see Americans in the
heartland stop voting against their own interests. Whether or not Bernie
wins the national election, we are seeing the formation of a political
movement ready to fight the good fight on a multi-issue level.
He has to convince people of different points of view and different
constituencies to work together. If he builds an effective team and stays in
good health, he may be able to bring people to the voting booths who never
vote and build alliances of people who don't generally ally. There is one
big wave of energy behind him.
If anyone can bend the numbers that Nate Silver relies on, Bernie is the
man.
________________________________________
"Bill Simpich is an Oakland attorney who knows that it doesn't have to be
like this. He was part of the legal team chosen by Public Justice as Trial
Lawyer of the Year in 2003 for winning a jury verdict of 4.4 million in Judi
Bari's lawsuit against the FBI and the Oakland police."
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission
to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader
Supported News.
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid. Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Current Super Tuesday states. (image: Real Clear Politics)
http://www.readersupportednews.org/http://www.readersupportednews.org/
How Does Bernie Sanders Deal With Super Tuesday?
By Bill Simpich, Reader Supported News
23 August 15
ernie Sanders is on course for strong performances at the Iowa caucuses on
February 1st and in the New Hampshire primary on the 9th. He may make a
credible showing at the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary later
in February. But how does Bernie get past Super Tuesday on the first of
March?
Alabama and Arkansas - ugh. Colorado caucuses - potential? Georgia - tough.
Massachusetts and the Minnesota caucuses - could be good. North Carolina,
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas - whoa, with the Lone Star State the largest
prize of the day. Vermont - Bernie's home state. Virginia - Hillary
territory.
Most insurgent candidates simply don't get past Super Tuesday. Gary Hart in
1984, Bill Bradley in 2000, Howard Dean in 2004, you get the picture. The
twelve races are tilted to the South and favor the candidate with national
strength and deep roots in the African American and Latino communities. What
strategy can enable Bernie Sanders to go all the way?
Ask Nate Silver, who is the go-to guy for a lot of us. At his
number-crunching website FiveThirtyEight, Silver recently raised the odds
that Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic nomination to 5%. His analysis:
I still think it needs to involve some "shock" (as an economist would define
that term) to the Clinton campaign. Meaning some substantially worse turn in
the email scandal than what's been reported so far. Hackers publish a bunch
of top-secret documents culled from Clinton's emails, for instance. Or a new
scandal. Or a health problem.
In that event, Democratic elites would probably turn toward another
establishment candidate. Most likely Joe Biden. But while I'm pretty sure
that Sanders can't beat Clinton head-to-head - he's losing to her badly now,
after all - I'm not so sure that's true of Biden, etc.
I think Sanders vs. Biden, in a world where the Democratic establishment is
in disarray because of a Clinton crisis, could be highly competitive. And
Bernie's organizational advantages - e.g., in the caucus states - could help
him against a candidate who is getting off to a very late start.
Another angle on Bernie's problem brought up by Silver's team is that
endorsements from governors, senators, and congressional members are thought
to be the most important variable to consider as a predictor of success.
Bernie does not have a single endorsement from any of them. See this chart
provided by FiveThirtyEight.
Here's a related dilemma: pragmatic voters are going to be reluctant to vote
for Bernie if it doesn't seem that he is going to be able to govern
effectively. Where are the legislators who are willing to work hard to
realize Sanders's vision? Very few of them presently can be found in
Congress - and how are they going to get there by 2016? How can he build a
base of like-minded legislators? It's no accident that he's calling for a
political revolution.
And, of course, Sanders has to win over huge numbers of African Americans
and Latinos in order to halt the Hillary juggernaut. Is it possible? In a
nod to Black Lives Matter, Bernie has adjusted his platform to note that
unless structural racism ends, economic justice is impossible. But he still
has to peel an incredible number of voters away from Hillary.
Nonetheless, Bernie continues to build momentum. He just won the endorsement
of the 185,000-member National Nurses United. He is coming off a successful
campaign swing through South Carolina. Believe it or not, even The New York
Times on Friday exclaimed that the 73-year old Sanders has "recaptured the
enthusiasm that fueled the 2008 Obama campaign."
What Bernie is bringing to the 2016 race has nothing to do with his
heritage, his pallor, or his coiffure. He has based his career and now this
campaign on the belief that the vast majority of people agree with the
fundamentals of his platform for economic justice. The unifying core of his
message is that the billionaires can't have it all. The strength of his
belief in the common sense of the people is about to be tested. He could
change American politics in a very positive way. As Tom Frank called for in
his book What's the Matter with Kansas?, we may see Americans in the
heartland stop voting against their own interests. Whether or not Bernie
wins the national election, we are seeing the formation of a political
movement ready to fight the good fight on a multi-issue level.
He has to convince people of different points of view and different
constituencies to work together. If he builds an effective team and stays in
good health, he may be able to bring people to the voting booths who never
vote and build alliances of people who don't generally ally. There is one
big wave of energy behind him.
If anyone can bend the numbers that Nate Silver relies on, Bernie is the
man.
"Bill Simpich is an Oakland attorney who knows that it doesn't have to be
like this. He was part of the legal team chosen by Public Justice as Trial
Lawyer of the Year in 2003 for winning a jury verdict of 4.4 million in Judi
Bari's lawsuit against the FBI and the Oakland police."
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission
to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader
Supported News.
http://e-max.it/posizionamento-siti-web/socialize
http://e-max.it/posizionamento-siti-web/socialize
