How China Won the Middle East Without Firing a Single Bullet
"If oil and influence were the prizes, then it seems China, not America, has
ultimately won the Iraq war and its aftermath - without ever firing a shot."
- Jamil Anderlini
by Ramzy Baroud
March 19th, 2021
By Ramzy Baroud
Amuch anticipated American foreign policy move under the Biden
Administration on how to counter China's unhindered economic growth and
political ambitions came in the form of a virtual summit on March 12,
linking, aside from the United States, India, Australia and Japan.
Although the so-called 'Quad' revealed nothing new in their joint statement,
the leaders of these four countries spoke about the 'historic' meeting,
described by 'The Diplomat' website as "a significant milestone in the
evolution of the grouping".
Actually, the joint statement has little substance and certainly nothing new
by way of a blueprint on how to reverse - or even slow down - Beijing's
geopolitical successes, growing military confidence and increasing presence
in or around strategic global waterways.
For years, the 'Quad' has been busy formulating a unified China strategy but
it has failed to devise anything of practical significance. 'Historic'
meetings aside, China is the world's only major economy that is predicted to
yield significant economic growth this year - and imminently. International
Monetary Fund's projections show that the Chinese economy is expected to
expand by 8.1 percent in 2021 while, on the other hand, according to data
from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US' GDP has declined by around
3.5 percent in 2020.
The 'Quad' - which stands for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - began in
2007, and was revived in 2017, with the obvious aim of repulsing China's
advancement in all fields. Like most American alliances, the 'Quad' is the
political manifestation of a military alliance, namely the Malabar Naval
Exercises. The latter started in 1992 and soon expanded to include all four
countries.
Since Washington's 'pivot to Asia', i.e., the reversal of established US
foreign policy that was predicated on placing greater focus on the Middle
East, there is little evidence that Washington's confrontational policies
have weakened Beijing's presence, trade or diplomacy throughout the
continent. Aside from close encounters between the American and Chinese
navies in the South China Sea, there is very little else to report.
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While much media coverage has focused on the US' pivot to Asia, little has
been said about China's pivot to the Middle East, which has been far more
successful as an economic and political endeavor than the American
geostrategic shift.
The US' seismic change in its foreign policy priorities stemmed from its
failure to translate the Iraq war and invasion of 2003 into a decipherable
geo-economic success as a result of seizing control of Iraq's oil largesse -
the world's second-largest proven oil reserves. The US strategy proved to be
a complete blunder.
In an article published in the Financial Times in September 2020, Jamil
Anderlini raises a fascinating point. "If oil and influence were the prizes,
then it seems China, not America, has ultimately won the Iraq war and its
aftermath - without ever firing a shot," he wrote.
Not only is China now Iraq's biggest trading partner, but Beijing's massive
economic and political influence in the Middle East is also a triumph. China
is now, according to the Financial Times, the Middle East's biggest foreign
investor and a strategic partnership with all Gulf States - save Bahrain.
Compare this with Washington's confused foreign policy agenda in the region,
its unprecedented indecisiveness, absence of a definable political doctrine
and the systematic breakdown of its regional alliances.
This paradigm becomes clearer and more convincing when understood on a
global scale. By the end of 2019, China became the world's leader in terms
of diplomacy, as it then boasted 276 diplomatic posts, many of which are
consulates. Unlike embassies, consulates play a more significant role in
terms of trade and economic exchanges. According to 2019 figures which were
published in 'Foreign Affairs' magazine, China has 96 consulates compared
with the US' 88. Till 2012, Beijing lagged significantly behind Washington's
diplomatic representation, precisely by 23 posts.
Wherever China is diplomatically present, economic development follows.
Unlike the US' disjointed global strategy, China's global ambitions are
articulated through a massive network, known as the Belt and Road
Initiative, estimated at trillions of dollars. When completed, BRI is set to
unify more than sixty countries around Chinese-led economic strategies and
trade routes. For this to materialize, China quickly moved to establish
closer physical proximity to the world's most strategic waterways, heavily
investing in some and, as in the case of Bab al-Mandab Strait, establishing
its first-ever overseas military base in Djibouti, located in the Horn of
Africa.
At a time when the US economy is shrinking and its European allies are
politically fractured, it is difficult to imagine that any American plan to
counter China's influence, whether in the Middle East, Asia or anywhere
else, will have much success.
The biggest hindrance to Washington's China strategy is that there can never
be an outcome in which the US achieves a clear and precise victory.
Economically, China is now driving global growth, thus balancing out the
US-international crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Hurting China
economically would weaken the US as well as the global markets.
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The same is true politically and strategically. In the case of the Middle
East, the pivot to Asia has backfired on multiple fronts. On the one hand,
it registered no palpable success in Asia while, on the other, it created a
massive vacuum for China to refocus its own strategy in the Middle East.
Some wrongly argue that China's entire political strategy is predicated on
its desire to merely 'do business'. While economic dominance is historically
the main drive of all superpowers, Beijing's quest for global supremacy is
hardly confined to finance. On many fronts, China has either already taken
the lead or is approaching there. For example, on March 9, China and Russia
signed an agreement to construct the International Lunar Research Station
(ILRS). Considering Russia's long legacy in space exploration and China's
recent achievements in the field - including the first-ever spacecraft
landing on the South Pole-Aitken Basin area of the moon - both countries are
set to take the lead in the resurrected space race.
Certainly, the US-led 'Quad' meeting was neither historic nor a
game-changer, as all indicators attest that China's global leadership will
continue unhindered, a consequential event that is already reordering the
world's geopolitical paradigms which have been in place for over a century.
