Published on Alternet (http://www.alternet.org)
Home > Has American Democracy Been Trumped?
________________________________________
Has American Democracy Been Trumped?
By Robert Kuttner [1] / Huffington Post [2]
December 28, 2015
I've been having incessant conversations with friends, family and colleagues
about politics, and they all boil down to the same question. Could Donald
Trump be our next president?
Here is an amalgam of the conversation. See which side you're on:
- I think Trump might actually win.
- You mean the Republican nomination?
- No, I mean the election.
- Get serious. For starters, the Republican leaders would never allow that.
They'd be much better off with Rubio-Kasich or Kasich-Rubio.
- Maybe they would. But there are no smoke-filled rooms anymore. Leaders
don't make these decisions. Primary voters do, and they love Trump. The more
outrageous he is and the less connected to facts, the more his support
grows.
- Yeah, but he's a media phenomenon. He is such an egomaniac that he hasn't
even bothered to build an organization. He has no ground game. That's why
Cruz has pulled ahead on Iowa.
- Iowa is a special case because it's a caucus state. In a society where
people are increasingly disconnected from politics, Trump can motivate
people just as a media candidate. If he needs an organization to get out his
vote, he can buy one.
- He's already peaked.
- Maybe, but under the new Republican rules that were put in place in 2014,
all of the primaries after March 15 are winner-take-all. He only needs to
come in first and he gets all of the state's delegates, even if he has 25
percent of the vote and, say, the runner-up has 22 percent. The Republicans
did this to get an early nominee. They didn't foresee Trump.
- It's still unlikely that he will get 50 percent of the delegates. If he
gets less than 50 percent and it's a brokered convention, all of the others
will unite to prevent Trump from being the nominee.
- Think again. Trump may be a fool and a demagogue when it comes to actual
policy, but one thing he's good at is making deals. Suppose he comes into
the convention with 45 percent of the delegates. All he has to do is offer
the vice-presidential nomination to someone who controls at least 5 percent
of the delegates, and he's over the top. Can you imagine all of the other
candidates, who really hate each other, somehow uniting to block Trump?
- Even if by some miracle he's nominated, he can't win. He has just
alienated too many groups - women, blacks, Muslims, immigrants.
- That depends. If we have a few more terrorist incidents, or if some more
skeletons come out of Hillary's closet, all bets are off.
- Mainstream Republicans will vote for Hillary in droves.
- Yes, such as they are. But Hillary is not producing much enthusiasm,
whereas Trump's base is really fired up.
- But imagine the debates. This is complicated stuff. Hillary is so much
better informed on the issues. He just makes it up.
- Right, but that doesn't seem to hurt him. She is hawkish for a Democrat,
but there is no way she will be tougher than Trump. And the fact that this
is very complicated stuff and Hillary really understands the
complexity--that doesn't necessarily play to her advantage. A lot of voters
want simple. And there is one more element.
- What's that?
- Trump is already the most populist of the Republican candidates, and the
most appealing to working class voters. He doesn't hate government the way
the others do. You can count on him to move left after he is nominated,
posing as the defender of Social Security, Medicare and demanding higher
taxes on the rich. Hillary, long allied with Wall Street, is less than an
ideal opponent. She may take some Republican votes, but he may take more
Democratic ones.
- That's sobering. Do you happen to know the rules for emigrating to Canada?
There is no right answer to this debate, of course. We will find out soon
enough. But at the very least, American democracy is in uncharted territory.
Democracy has been seriously weakened by the role of big money on one flank,
and by massive voter cynicism about politics and government on the other. In
a national security crisis with no easy solutions, it is a sitting duck for
a demagogue like Trump.
Working and middle class voters have been taking an economic pummeling for
decades. The Democrats have tried harder than the Republicans to remedy
that, but they haven't tried hard enough. The voters are right when they see
both parties in bed with Wall Street.
The fact that the populist candidate is a billionaire is an emblem of just
how messed up is the misalignment of self-interest, general disaffection,
and voting preferences. What the hell, at least the man can't be bought.
Trump's use of "political correctness" as an all-purpose gibe is another
reflection of political dysfunction. Much of what he dismisses as mere p.c.
is in fact the legitimate assertion of rights. Black Americans, for
instance, are finally saying enough to chronic mistreatment at the hands of
police. Women are finally saying enough to sexual harassment and rape.
But the demands for respect are interacting poisonously with three decades
of downward mobility for working and middle class white men. As Thomas
Edsall recently reported [3] in the New York Times, polls show that large
numbers of voters are sick of political correctness, an all-purpose put-down
that conveniently uses some silly demands at the extremes to disparage calls
for redress as mainstream as the movement for civil rights.
Having a president with Great Dictator tendencies would be one more blow
against democracy. We find out soon enough how much resilience our democracy
has left--and if we are lucky we can then set about rebuilding it.
Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a visiting
professor at Brandeis University's Heller School. His latest book is
Debtors' Prison: The Politics of Austerity Versus Possibility. [4]
Share on Facebook Share
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Report typos and corrections to 'corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx'. [5]
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Source URL:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/has-american-democracy-been-trumped
Links:
[1] http://www.alternet.org/authors/robert-kuttner
[2] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
[3]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/opinion/trump-obama-and-the-assault-on-pol
itical-correctness.html?_r=0
[4]
http://www.amazon.com/Debtors-Prison-Politics-Austerity-Possibility/dp/03079
59805
[5] mailto:corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx?Subject=Typo on Has American Democracy
Been Trumped?
[6] http://www.alternet.org/
[7] http://www.alternet.org/%2Bnew_src%2B
Published on Alternet (http://www.alternet.org)
Home > Has American Democracy Been Trumped?
Has American Democracy Been Trumped?
By Robert Kuttner [1] / Huffington Post [2]
December 28, 2015
I've been having incessant conversations with friends, family and colleagues
about politics, and they all boil down to the same question. Could Donald
Trump be our next president?
Here is an amalgam of the conversation. See which side you're on:
- I think Trump might actually win.
- You mean the Republican nomination?
- No, I mean the election.
- Get serious. For starters, the Republican leaders would never allow that.
They'd be much better off with Rubio-Kasich or Kasich-Rubio.
- Maybe they would. But there are no smoke-filled rooms anymore. Leaders
don't make these decisions. Primary voters do, and they love Trump. The more
outrageous he is and the less connected to facts, the more his support
grows.
- Yeah, but he's a media phenomenon. He is such an egomaniac that he hasn't
even bothered to build an organization. He has no ground game. That's why
Cruz has pulled ahead on Iowa.
- Iowa is a special case because it's a caucus state. In a society where
people are increasingly disconnected from politics, Trump can motivate
people just as a media candidate. If he needs an organization to get out his
vote, he can buy one.
- He's already peaked.
- Maybe, but under the new Republican rules that were put in place in 2014,
all of the primaries after March 15 are winner-take-all. He only needs to
come in first and he gets all of the state's delegates, even if he has 25
percent of the vote and, say, the runner-up has 22 percent. The Republicans
did this to get an early nominee. They didn't foresee Trump.
- It's still unlikely that he will get 50 percent of the delegates. If he
gets less than 50 percent and it's a brokered convention, all of the others
will unite to prevent Trump from being the nominee.
- Think again. Trump may be a fool and a demagogue when it comes to actual
policy, but one thing he's good at is making deals. Suppose he comes into
the convention with 45 percent of the delegates. All he has to do is offer
the vice-presidential nomination to someone who controls at least 5 percent
of the delegates, and he's over the top. Can you imagine all of the other
candidates, who really hate each other, somehow uniting to block Trump?
- Even if by some miracle he's nominated, he can't win. He has just
alienated too many groups - women, blacks, Muslims, immigrants.
- That depends. If we have a few more terrorist incidents, or if some more
skeletons come out of Hillary's closet, all bets are off.
- Mainstream Republicans will vote for Hillary in droves.
- Yes, such as they are. But Hillary is not producing much enthusiasm,
whereas Trump's base is really fired up.
- But imagine the debates. This is complicated stuff. Hillary is so much
better informed on the issues. He just makes it up.
- Right, but that doesn't seem to hurt him. She is hawkish for a Democrat,
but there is no way she will be tougher than Trump. And the fact that this
is very complicated stuff and Hillary really understands the
complexity--that doesn't necessarily play to her advantage. A lot of voters
want simple. And there is one more element.
- What's that?
- Trump is already the most populist of the Republican candidates, and the
most appealing to working class voters. He doesn't hate government the way
the others do. You can count on him to move left after he is nominated,
posing as the defender of Social Security, Medicare and demanding higher
taxes on the rich. Hillary, long allied with Wall Street, is less than an
ideal opponent. She may take some Republican votes, but he may take more
Democratic ones.
- That's sobering. Do you happen to know the rules for emigrating to Canada?
There is no right answer to this debate, of course. We will find out soon
enough. But at the very least, American democracy is in uncharted territory.
Democracy has been seriously weakened by the role of big money on one flank,
and by massive voter cynicism about politics and government on the other. In
a national security crisis with no easy solutions, it is a sitting duck for
a demagogue like Trump.
Working and middle class voters have been taking an economic pummeling for
decades. The Democrats have tried harder than the Republicans to remedy
that, but they haven't tried hard enough. The voters are right when they see
both parties in bed with Wall Street.
The fact that the populist candidate is a billionaire is an emblem of just
how messed up is the misalignment of self-interest, general disaffection,
and voting preferences. What the hell, at least the man can't be bought.
Trump's use of "political correctness" as an all-purpose gibe is another
reflection of political dysfunction. Much of what he dismisses as mere p.c.
is in fact the legitimate assertion of rights. Black Americans, for
instance, are finally saying enough to chronic mistreatment at the hands of
police. Women are finally saying enough to sexual harassment and rape.
But the demands for respect are interacting poisonously with three decades
of downward mobility for working and middle class white men. As Thomas
Edsall recently reported [3] in the New York Times, polls show that large
numbers of voters are sick of political correctness, an all-purpose put-down
that conveniently uses some silly demands at the extremes to disparage calls
for redress as mainstream as the movement for civil rights.
Having a president with Great Dictator tendencies would be one more blow
against democracy. We find out soon enough how much resilience our democracy
has left--and if we are lucky we can then set about rebuilding it.
Robert Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect and a visiting
professor at Brandeis University's Heller School. His latest book is
Debtors' Prison: The Politics of Austerity Versus Possibility. [4]
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.
Report typos and corrections to 'corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx'. [5]
Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.[6]
Source URL:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/has-american-democracy-been-trumped ;
Links:
[1] http://www.alternet.org/authors/robert-kuttner
[2] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
[3]
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/opinion/trump-obama-and-the-assault-on-pol
itical-correctness.html?_r=0
[4]
http://www.amazon.com/Debtors-Prison-Politics-Austerity-Possibility/dp/03079
59805
[5] mailto:corrections@xxxxxxxxxxxx?Subject=Typo on Has American Democracy
Been Trumped?
[6] http://www.alternet.org/
[7] http://www.alternet.org/%2Bnew_src%2B
