"Exceptionally Dire": Secondary Impacts of Covid-19 Could Increase Global
Poverty and Hunger
By Nick Turse, The Intercept
04 May 20
More than 240,000 people worldwide have already died of Covid-19, and before
the pandemic finishes, it could kill hundreds of thousands, even millions,
more. But the final toll is destined to be far higher than just those who
die of Covid-19. Experts warn that deaths from secondary impacts - poverty,
hunger, diseases, and violence exacerbated by the pandemic - may dwarf the
number of those who die of the novel coronavirus itself.A new analysis by
researchers from King's College London and Australian National University,
under the aegis of the United Nations University World Institute for
Development Economics Research, for example, warns that the economic
contraction caused by Covid-19 could push an additional 500 million people -
about 8 percent of the Earth's population - into poverty, reversing 30 years
of economic improvement. "We were surprised at the sheer scale of the
potential poverty tsunami that could follow Covid-19 in developing
countries," said Andy Sumner, one of the study's authors.
Not surprisingly, such financial fallout has grim knock-on effects. "I want
to stress that we are not only facing a global health pandemic but also a
global humanitarian catastrophe," warned David Beasley, the executive
director of the United Nations World Food Program. "Millions of civilians
living in conflict-scarred nations, including many women and children, face
being pushed to the brink of starvation, with the specter of famine a very
real and dangerous possibility." A new study by the WFP found that lockdowns
and the economic recession caused by Covid-19 may exacerbate an already dire
worldwide hunger crisis, almost doubling the number of people who could go
hungry, pushing a total of 265 million people to the brink of starvation by
the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization notes that a diversion of resources
could have especially devastating effects on the fight against malaria.
Under a worst-case scenario, in which all insecticide-treated bed net
campaigns are suspended, and there is a 75% reduction in access to effective
antimalarial medicines, fatalities from the mosquito-borne illness could
reach 769,000 - double the number of deaths in 2018 - effectively wiping out
20 years of gains in suppressing malaria mortality. Similarly, a new
analysis by researchers at Imperial College London found that in low- and
middle-income countries, disruptions to health services could cause deaths
from HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to increase by up to 10, 20, and 36
percent respectively over five years.
"As Covid-19 cases surge worldwide, the survival of pregnant women and
children is at great risk due to strained healthcare systems, and the
disruption of life-saving health services," said Dr. Stefan Peterson,
associate director and global chief of health at the United Nations
International Children's Emergency Fund. In fact, researchers at the Johns
Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health warn, for example, that the impact
of the pandemic to newborn, child, and adolescent health and nutrition
services might lead to the deaths of 1.2 million children - a 45 percent
increase over existing child mortality levels.
The overall death toll among the young may actually be exponentially higher
according to a recent report from the Christian aid organization, World
Vision. An analysis of 24 countries with existing humanitarian crises - from
Afghanistan to Yemen - found that as many as 30 million children's lives are
at risk from other diseases, like diphtheria, whooping cough, and tetanus,
if health care systems are swamped by the pandemic and resources are
diverted from immunizations. "We are wrong if we think this is not a
children's disease," said Andrew Morley, World Vision's president and chief
executive. "Experience tells us that when epidemics overwhelm health
systems, the impact on children is deadly."
Among youths, girls will suffer most according to a recent analysis by Plan
International, an aid organization that advocates for children's rights and
equality for girls. Since women and girls undertake more than three-quarters
of unpaid care and, in rural communities and low-income countries, spend up
to 14 hours a day on such work, girls will likely be at greater risk of
infection. But this is just one type of collateral damage. "Covid-19
shutdowns will disrupt early learning, formal education and livelihoods,"
according to the report. "Measures to curb the disease have worsened
existing inequalities, forcing girls out of school and placing them at
heightened risk of violence in their home."
UNHCR, the United Nations' refugee agency, notes that even before the
Covid-19 pandemic, an estimated one in three women had experienced physical
or sexual abuse. Confinement, lockdowns, and quarantines coupled with
deteriorating socioeconomic conditions have now created a perfect storm.
"These factors significantly increase the risks of intimate partner
violence, with refugees, internally displaced and stateless persons among
the most vulnerable," according to the agency. But the "shadow pandemic" of
violence against girls and women extends far beyond refugees and displaced
war victims, with reports of domestic violence having increased by 30% in
France, while calls to help lines have jumped 30% in Cyprus and 33% in
Singapore.
The United Nations study forecasts that the greatest economic impact of
Covid-19 will be in sub-Saharan Africa, where cases are rapidly increasing
and, if projections prove accurate, "up to half of the new poor will live."
There, the effects will be felt in infant and maternal mortality,
undernutrition, malnourishment, and educational achievement, among other
indicators.
Alexandra Lamarche, senior advocate for West and Central Africa at Refugees
International, explained that preventative measures aimed at countering
Covid-19 were also impediments to humanitarian aid, leaving poor people
without access to food. "We're going to see significant impacts on
malnutrition rates," she told The Intercept. "And we're seeing all sorts of
secondary impacts. For example, there's a polio outbreak in Niger because
they stopped vaccinating." Between hunger and disease, poverty and violence,
the follow-on effects of Covid-19 threaten to be as wide-ranging as they are
lethal. "There are just so many different unexpected consequences," said
Lamarche. "It's extremely disheartening. And it's going to be exceptionally
dire."
