Line: http://www.electoral-vote.com
Possible Electoral Vote: Trump 310, Clinton 228
<http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov09.html#item-1>
The final results are in in 45 states, with Donald Trump winning 276
electoral votes and Hillary Clinton winning 218. Here is the map from
/Politico/ <http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president>:
Of the five states still not called, Trump seems very likely to win
Alaska, Arizona, and Michigan. Clinton is likely to win Minnesota. This
would bring Trump to 306 and Clinton to 228. Currently, Trump leads in
New Hampshire by 307 votes, but 7% of the precincts have not reported
yet, so that could change. Trump appears to have won Maine's northern
congressional district, ME-02. (V)
Popular Vote Is Very Close
<http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov09.html#item-2>
While Donald Trump has a clear majority in the Electoral College, as of
10:10 am EST, the popular vote is still very close. Clinton has
59,299,381 and Trump has 59,135,740, giving Clinton a popular vote lead
of 163,641. The final tallies are not in yet, so that could yet change,
but if Clinton ends up winning the popular vote, Democrats could use
Trump's loss to try to delegitimize him. They are going to be yelling:
"The system is rigged" for 4 years. Also noteworthy is that the major
party candidates got a mere 118 million votes, unless a lot more come
in. This is less than the 125 million in 2012. Some votes are yet
uncounted in California and Washington state. This is the second time in
16 years that the popular-vote winner might lose the election. (V)
How Did This Happen?
<http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov09.html#item-4>
In the coming days there is going to be a lot of 20-20 hindsight about
how the greatest upset in American history happened. We will cover it.
Here are some initial thoughts.
* A lot of people in the country are very angry with both parties, and
Trump promised radical change
* Sexism, racist, and generally bigotry was always there, it just
needed a champion and it found one
* Clinton saw that a lot of Democrats preferred Bernie, but she simply
couldn't plausibly become Bernie
* Many Sanders voters grudgingly voted for Clinton, but didn't
volunteer, donate, or bring their friends along
* A lot of people saw Trump as a decisive leader based on his TV show
* Trump had a simple message: "Let's go back to the 1950s"; Clinton
didn't have any message at all
* Comey's letter may have influenced millions of votes before he
finally said: "Oops, only lap pix on the laptop"
* The influence of the Latino vote was greatly overestimated
* The Republicans brilliantly made a mountain out of a molehill,
a.k.a. an email server
When the exit poll data starts to come in, we'll have a better idea what
really happened. To some extent, Trump's wins in Michigan, Wisconsin,
Ohio, and Iowa are all part of the "revenge of the angry, white
blue-collar man" story. North Carolina and Florida don't fit that
pattern. We'll have to wait to see what happened there. (V)
How Does This Result Affect 2018?
<http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov09.html#item-5>
One silver lining for the Democrats is that it makes life somewhat
easier in 2018, when half a dozen Democrats in red states are up for
reelection in the Senate. Traditionally, the party in the White House
loses seats in the midterms, and now that will be the Republican Party.
Also, with complete control of all branches of government, the
Republicans are going to have to deliver. That won't be so easy. The
stock market is already looking grim. Suppose we have a Trump recession?
Trump isn't going to be able to bring back millions of factory jobs.
What happens when his supporters discover that it's not going to happen
and they were suckered? What happens when he discovers that Congress is
in no mood to finance a $20 billion wall and Mexico really is not going
to pay for it? He could ban all Muslims from entering the country, but
suppose he does and all the Arab countries say: "You want to fight ISIS?
Go ahead. We're not going to help." Trump could appoint a very young,
very conservative judge to the Supreme Court, but most of his other
promises aren't really doable and his followers are bound to be
disappointed when they belatedly discover this. (V)
2:40 am EST
Hillary Clinton has called Donald Trump and conceded. Donald Trump will
be the 45th President of the United States.
We are going to take a break for a while and be back with more later in
the day.
2:31 am EST
CNN projects that Trump will win Wisconsin.It has him at 257 electoral
votes now. If he wins either Michigan or Pennsylvania, it's all over,
and he is leading in both.
Richard
