DEFENSIVE MOVES OR PREPARATION FOR WAR WITH IRAN?
By Elijah J. Magnier.
February 8, 2021 | Popular Resistance
The US has decided to deploy the Israeli Iron Dome Missile Interceptor
Systems, purchased in 2019, in Eastern European countries and also in the
Gulf countries where the US Central Command (CENTCOM) operates and has
established operational military bases. This step coincides with the US
decision that Israeljoin CENTCOM (with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,
Bahrein, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, Sudan, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman,
Pakistan and more) following the normalisation of trade and diplomatic
relations between several Arab and Islamic countries and Tel Aviv.
Iran considers the transfer of Israeli operational activities from EUCOM to
CENTCOM an aggressive move allowing Israel to use all US military bases
deployed around the "Islamic Republic". Iran believes the decision to deploy
the Israeli Iron Dome could be a step towards a possible preemptive military
strike on Iran. An Israeli attack on selective targets in Iran is possible
if the US returns to the nuclear deal unconditionally. Israel could also
attack Iran if President Joe Biden slows down a possible return to the
nuclear deal and fails to lift all sanctions imposed on Iran. Iran would
then respond, first by increasing its uranium enrichment, withdrawing from
treaties, preventing inspectors' access to its nuclear sites and increasing
the number and quality of its centrifuges. This expected Iranian move will
cross Israel's red lines. Is the Middle East headed towards war or are these
moves ultimately and solely defensive?
An Iranian decision maker said "Iran doesn't have the intention to attack
any US or Israeli targets as long as they don't start a war or hit selective
objectives in Iran. The Iraqi parliament has decided on the withdrawal of
all foreign forces, therefore there is no need for further revenge for the
US assassination of Brigadier General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on January
2020. The (Iranian) bombing of the US base in Ayn al-Assad in Iraq was our
response. Nevertheless, we learned how Israel joined CENTCOM military bases
surrounding Iran where Israeli interception missiles will be deployed in
many Middle Eastern countries. Why would the US deploy these missiles if not
for fear of an Iranian bombing? And why would Iran bomb the US bases and
Israel unless these show the intention to bomb Iran first? Are the US and
the Israelis planning to hit nuclear facilities, thinking they can destroy
our capabilities? They can't", said the source.
"Iran has shown it has hundreds of underground strategic missiles launchers
and silos. This capability was demonstrated during recent manoeuvres aimed
at creating deterrence and convincing our enemies to avoid hitting Iran.
Because thousands of missiles are spread all over our territory, it is
impossible for the US and Israel to destroy all of them. Therefore, Iran can
absorb a first hit that will fail to cripple our missile capability,
retaliate against all US military bases spread over West Asia, and hit the
heart of Israel. Iron Dome showed it can intercept a large number of
missiles, which means a few missiles will go through, which is good enough
when these missiles carry a destructive warhead. But the Israeli
interception system can do very little when flooded with multiple missiles
launched simultaneously from different locations", confirmed the Iranian
decision-maker.
Iran may have its apprehensions but that is not the only (pessimistic)
scenario the Middle East may have to face in the future. And if the Iranian
concern is correct, the risk of heading towards serious escalation is real.
However, it is doubtful that the new Biden administration is preparing for a
new war in the Middle East. Biden has many priorities, starting from the
task of US domestic unification, the damage caused by COVID, issues with
China, Russia, and restoring a positive relationship with its allies. That
is at least the first part of this current year's schedule, including the
beginning of negotiations with Iran and the presence of US forces in Iraq.
This is a heavy agenda, and Iran occupies only a small place in this very
busy schedule. Other concerns like Turkey, Syria and Latin America are of
course important, but all these and other issues may be less of a priority
for the new administration.
However, there are many indications which justify Iranian alarm, starting
from the Israeli Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi's warning (for the attention
of the new administration, not to return to the nuclear deal signed by
Barack Obama in 2015 without modifications. Indeed, Defence Secretary Lloyd
Austin and Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken have both expressed clearly that
Iran's behaviour in the Middle East is dangerous and that Biden will not be
in any hurry to rush towards a nuclear deal. The US administration seems to
believe the nuclear deal needs re-negotiation involving Middle Eastern
partners and addressing the Iranian missile programme and Iran's allies.
These are the exact points that Iran rejects categorically; they were
already rejected during the negotiations with Obama prior to 2015. Iran
wants the US to lift the harsh sanctions imposed by Trump first, and will
not agree to "negotiate under fire" (under sanctions).
It is important for the west to listen to what the leader of the revolution
Sayyed Ali Khamenei has said: Iran is not in a hurry to conclude the nuclear
deal but wants all sanctions to be lifted. It will not negotiate any
additional issues and won't abandon its friends and allies, with its duty to
support them.
It thus seems clear that Biden is not rushing into the nuclear deal and will
not lift all sanctions by the 21 of February. Iran has set this date as a
deadline for the US to comply with. After this date, unless sanctions are
lifted, the parliament has committed to move forward increasing uranium
enrichment up to 20% and suspending its voluntary implementation of the
Additional protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), unless
sanctions are lifted. It is highly unlikely that Biden will bend to the
Iranian ultimatum, to avoid looking weak. However, the US President could
eventually lift some of the sanctions imposed by his predecessor (Donald
Trump) to show some goodwill and ask for more time to look into the Iranian
nuclear deal, on the pretext that domestic priorities required this delay
and that time was needed to explore the next step towards Iran.
The bottom line is the fact that the US needs to consult its Middle Eastern
allies. However, any soft US approach towards Iran will raise serious alarm
in Israel and the Gulf countries, mainly Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. Many
European countries have also requested a re-negotiation to include the
Iranian missile programme, particularly the ballistic missiles with a range
over 2000 km. However, Europe is not a serious concern because for a long
time it has not demonstrated its own independent policy.
An immediate war or hit against Iran's positions is therefore most unlikely
in the near future because the elements for it are not yet in place.
However, if the US delays the lifting of sanctions, there is no doubt that
Iran will head towards increasing its nuclear capability and other related
measures. This will raise the level of tension in the Middle East.
There is also another possibility: Israel and some of the Gulf countries
would like to stand as one solid front to prevent Biden from implementing
the nuclear deal as it is and lifting all sanctions on Iran. By joining
CENTCOM and by having its Iron Dome deployed in the Middle East, Israel and
the Gulf countries who normalised their relationship would work through one
single operational room. This would force Biden to listen carefully to their
fears and take into account their requests, especially if the Gulf countries
adopt the idea of an an "Arab NATO" proposed by the Trump administration.
The tension between Saudi Arabia and Qatar has been eased which removes one
of the main obstacles to form the Arab NATO, if its formation is still on
the table.
With the Iron Dome around Iran, Israel has the possibility of intercepting a
large number of Iranian missiles before they reach Tel Aviv, in case of war.
However, Iran is far from being alone in any future war. Its allies in
Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq have been provided with precision missiles
notwithstanding the multiple Israeli attacks in Syria and on the
Iraqi-Syrian borders and other parts of the Levant to destroy some of the
missile's warehouses. Even the collaboration between Israel and the US in
one operational room won't stop Hezbollah, Iran's strongest ally, from
flooding Israel with its hundreds of thousands of missiles and hitting
thousands of targets prepared in its bank of objectives.
However, Iran has decided to adopt another approach towards Saudi Arabia to
counter the US-Israeli move. Both Iranian pragmatists and hardliners
understand the potential danger of the US-Israeli moves and would like to
see the end of their animosity with the Saudis. It has launched, mainly
through Kuwait but also through Oman, Qatar and Russia, an initiative to
open a breach in the impasse and advocate for a direct dialogue to ensure
the security of the Persian Gulf and address Saudi fears about Iran's
intentions in the region. However, the Saudis wrongly believe the Iranians
are asking for the dialogue because Saudi Arabia is expected to be part of
the nuclear deal negotiation. The Saudis informed the mediators that Iran
should first stop supporting its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
To Iran, the Saudi request is unacceptable because it would mean abandoning
its allies.
Iran believes the US will not allow Saudi Arabia to conduct a constructive
and direct dialogue with Iran. The Saudis are the first and most generous US
arms buyers in the world, and the end of the Saudi-Iran animosity would mean
bad business for the US and an end to the justification for many US military
bases in the Middle East. Therefore, a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi
Arabia is far from being ripe, and is unlikely to happen in the coming
years.
US Central Command is expanding its operational ability in Saudi Arabia to
"move forces in any scenario of armed conflict with Iran" and exploring "the
industrial port at Yanbu, on the western part of the Arabian peninsula and
the Red Sea".
Iran believes - according to the source - that "the Americans have convinced
the Saudis that the Persian Gulf is a highly volatile and dangerous area to
operate from because of Iran's expansion plans. Therefore, it is not
surprising to see the US expanding its presence in Saudi Arabia and blocking
any attempt for the countries of the region to sort out their problems
alone. Iran has tested its armed drones and ballistic missiles up to 2000
km. That doesn't mean we have stopped; our final objectives involve
producing defensive weapons to reach much further. Like the Americans, we
also have our possible war-scenario to cover all areas where our enemies can
be based", concluded the source.
Only President Biden can take a firm decision regardless of what his allies
and administration suggest. Unfortunately, few positive signs are emanating
from the Middle East. Biden says he is a Zionist. He has supported Israel
for the last 50 years and endlessly repeats that he supports Israel's
security, a very elastic term that means closing an eye to many of Israel's
acts, while offering full US support. However, the Obama-Netanyahu
relationship was not that good in the last years of the (former) president's
term. Will Biden succeed in reducing the tension and satisfying Iran, Israel
and Saudi Arabia? Would he lift all sanctions (theoretically) as Obama did,
and sign the nuclear deal as it is without modifications? It may be too soon
to tell, but the indications so far are not promising.
