Chinas European Moment Has Arrived
April 1, 2019
The simplicities of the postwar order have just begun to pass into history,
writes Patrick Lawrence.
By Patrick Lawrence
Special to Consortium News
It would be difficult to overstate the importance of Xi Jinpings visits to
Rome, Paris and Monaco last week. In bringing his much-remarked Belt and
Road Initiative to the center of Europe, the Chinese president has faced the
Continent with the most fundamental question it will have to resolve in
coming decades: Where does it stand as a transAtlantic partner with the
U.S. and as of Xis European tour the western flank of the Eurasian
landmass? The simplicities of the postwar order, to put the point another
way, have just begun to pass into history.
In Rome, the populist government of Premier Giuseppe Conte brought Italy
into Chinas ambitious plan to connect East Asia and Western Europe via a
multitude of infrastructure projects stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon and
beyond. The memorandum of understanding Xi and Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio
signed calls for joint development of roads, railways, bridges, airports,
seaports, energy projects and telecommunications systems. Along with the
MoU, Chinese investors signed 29 agreements worth $2.8 billion.
Xi Jinpeng: Plenty to celebrate with Europe. (Wikimedia Commons)
Xi Jinpeng: Plenty to celebrate in Europe. (Wikimedia Commons)
Italy is the first Group of 7 nation to commit to Chinas BRI strategy and
the first among the European Unions founding members. It did so two weeks
after the European Commission released EUChina: A Strategic Outlook, an
assessment of Chinas swift arrival in Europe that goes straight to the
core of the Continents ambivalence. Here is the operative passage in the
E.C. report:
China is, simultaneously, in different policy areas, a cooperation partner
with whom the E.U. has closely aligned objectives, a negotiating partner
with whom the E.U. needs to find a balance of interests, an economic
competitor in the pursuit of technological leadership, and a systemic rival
promoting alternative models of governance.
There is much in this document to chew upon. One is the mounting concern
among EU members and senior officials in Brussels about Chinas emergence as
a global power. This is natural, providing it does not tip into a
contemporary version of the last centurys Yellow Peril. At the same time,
the Continents leaders are highly resistant to the confrontational posture
toward China that Washington urges upon them. This is the wisest course they
could possibly choose: It is a strong indicator that Europeans are at last
seeking an independent voice in global affairs.
Looking for Unity
They are also looking for a united EU front in the Continents relations
with China. This was Emmanuel Macrons point when Xi arrived in Paris. The
French president made sure German Chancellor Angela Merkel and E.C.
President JeanClaude Juncker were there to greet Xi on his arrival at the
Élysée Palace. The primary reason Italy sent shockwaves through Europe when
it signed onto Xis signature project is because it effectively broke ranks
at a highly charged moment.
But unity of the kind Macron and Merkel advocate is likely to prove elusive.
For one thing, Brussels can impose only so far on the sovereignty of member
states. For another, no one wants to miss, in the name of an E.U. principle,
the opportunities China promises to bring Europes way. While Macron
insisted on EU unity, he and Xi looked on as China signed contracts with
Airbus, Électricité de France, and numerous other companies worth more than
$35 billion.
There is only one way to read this: Core Europe can argue all it wants that
China is unrolling a divide-and-conquer strategy, but one looks in vain for
on-the-ground resistance to Chinas apparent preference for bilateral
agreements across the Continent. On his way home, Xi stopped in Monaco,
which agreed in February to allow Huawei, Chinas controversial telecoms
company, to develop the principalitys 5G phone network.
In numerous ways, Italy was fated to demonstrate the likely shape of Chinas
arrival in Europe. The Conte government, a coalition led by the rightist
Lega and the Five-Star Movement, has been a contrarian among EU members
since it came to power last year: It is highly critical of Brussels and of
other member states, it opposes EU austerity policies, it is fiercely
jealous of its sovereignty in the EU context, and it favors better ties with
Russia.
Closer to the ground, the Italian economy is weak and inward investment is
paltry. Chinese manufacturers have made short work of Italian competitors in
industries such as textiles and pharmaceuticals over the past couple of
decades. A map, finally, tells us all we need to know about Italys
geographic position: Its ports, notably Trieste at the northern end of the
Adriatic, are gateways to the heart of Europes strongest markets.
Six proposed corridorsof Belt and Road Initiative, showing Italy inside
circle, on maritime blue route. (Lommes, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)
Six proposed corridorsof Belt and Road Initiative, showing Italy inside
circle, on maritime blue route. (Lommes, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)
As the westward destination of Xis envisioned Belt and Road, Europes
economic and political relations with China were bound to reach a takeoff
point. The accord with Italy, Xis European tour and an EUChina summit
scheduled to take place in Brussels on April 9 signal that this moment has
arrived.
Shift in Relationship
But it is not yet clear whether Europeans have grasped the strategic
magnitude of last weeks events. In effect, the Continents leaders have
started down a path that is almost certain to induce a shift in the
longstanding transAtlantic relationship. In effect, Europe is starting at
last to act more independently while repositioning itself between the
Atlantic world and the dynamic nations of the East; China first among them
by a long way.
No European leader has yet addressed this inevitable question.
Let us not overstate this case. TransAtlantic ties have been increasingly
strained since Barack Obamas presidency. President Donald Trumps
antagonisms, most notably over the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear
agreement, have intensified this friction. But there is still no indication
that any European leader advocates a rupture in relations with Washington.
Can U.S.European ties evolve gradually as Chinas presence on the Continent
grows more evident? This is the core question. Both sides will determine the
outcome. The Europeans appear to be preparing for a new chapter in the
transAtlantic story, but there is simply no telling how Washington will
respond to a reduction in its long-unchallenged influence in Western
European capitals.
There is one other question the West as a whole must face. The E.C.s
strategic outlook terms China a systemic rival promoting alternative
forms of governance. There are two problems with this commonly sounded
theme.
First, there is no evidence whatsoever that China has or ever will insist
that other countries conform to its political standards in exchange for
economic advantage. That may be customary practice among Western nations and
at institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
It is not Chinas.
Second, as we advance toward a condition of parity between West and nonWest
an inevitable feature of our century it will no longer be plausible to
assume that the Wests parliamentary democracies set the standard by which
all others can be judged. Nations have vastly varying political traditions.
It is up to each to maintain or depart from them. China understands this. So
should the West.
Patrick Lawrence, a correspondent abroad for many years, chiefly for the
International Herald Tribune, is a columnist, essayist, author, and
lecturer. His most recent book is Time No Longer: Americans After the
American Century (Yale). Follow him @thefloutist. His web site is
www.patricklawrence.us. Support his work via www.patreon.com/thefloutist.
