Sylvie, in the end nature always extracts its revenge.
Frank
-----Original Message-----
From: blind-democracy-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:blind-democracy-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of S. Kashdan
Sent: Sunday, March 27, 2016 6:49 PM
To: Blind Democracy List <blind-democracy@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [blind-democracy] Antarctica on the Brink: NASA Emeritus Scientist
Warns of Dramatic Loss of Glaciers
Greetings all,
Below is a very good example of the results of the philosophy of promoting the
maximization of man's power over nature, without consulting or taking into
account other people.
For justice and peace,
Sylvie
Antarctica on the Brink: NASA Emeritus Scientist Warns of Dramatic Loss of
Glaciers
By Dahr Jamail
Truthout, Monday, March 14, 2016
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/35202-antarctica-on-the-brink-nasa-emeritus-scientist-warns-of-dramatic-loss-of-glaciers?tmpl=component&print=1
"Every degree of heat increase melts an additional 30 feet of ice, each year,"
says Robert Bindschadler, who worked for 35 years as a glaciologist at NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center.
Scientific reports about the increasing pace of melting ice--in all its forms
around the planet--are being published on a nearly daily basis.
A study published in January revealed a dramatic increase in melt rates on
Antarctica's most stable ice shelf, when it showed that melting rates were
25 times higher than expected.
This disconcerting news comes a year after another study, which showed that the
largest glacier in eastern Antarctica (Totten Glacier), which by itself
contains the ice equivalent of a 20-foot rise in global sea levels, is melting
due to warming ocean waters.
Other reports showing how increasingly warm ocean waters are contributing to an
accelerating melting of large portions of Antarctica continue to be published
on a regular basis.
NASA emeritus scientist Robert Bindschadler, who worked for 35 years as a
glaciologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, is warning the global
community about impending sea level rise. He is also doing what he can to
educate people about the mechanisms causing the rapidly increasing melting of
our polar regions, with the hope that it will make us more mindful of our
carbon dioxide emissions, which have created the crisis of anthropogenic
climate disruption (ACD).
Bindschadler led 18 field expeditions to Antarctica, and has participated in
many other expeditions to glaciers and ice caps around the world. He actively
developed applications that measure ice velocity and elevation using both
visible and radar imagery, monitor melt of and snowfall on ice sheets by
microwave emissions, and detect changes in ice sheet volume by repeat
space-borne radar altimetry (using satellites to measure ice sheet thickness).
Bindschadler, who has published over 130 scientific papers, has advised the US
Congress and the vice president on the stability of ice sheets and ice shelves
and served on many scientific commissions and study groups as an expert in
glaciology and remote sensing of ice. He also has degrees in astronomy and
physics.
A winner of numerous scientific awards, Bindschadler continues to be a leader
in the public conversation around the climate's impact on the world's ice
sheets and glaciers. Although he is retired, he maintains an active interest in
the dynamics of glaciers and ice sheets, investigating how remote sensing can
be used to improve our understanding of the role of ice in the earth's climate.
A little more than a year after first interviewing Bindschadler, Truthout spoke
with him again to get an update on his concerns about Antarctic glaciers, the
melting of Greenland and the Arctic sea ice, and sea level rise in the future.
Dahr Jamail: The world's glaciers are in peril. A disturbing report has shown
that they have shrunk to their lowest levels ever witnessed in the history of
record-keeping. They are melting at an accelerating rate - two to three times
faster than the 20th century average melt rate. As if to punctuate the findings
of the report, the world's fastest melting glaciers, located in Greenland, a
short while ago lost the largest amount of ice on record in just a 48-hour
period. How much faster should we expect this kind of melting to increase?
Robert Bindschadler: Two things cause concern: One is the dynamics [ocean
dynamics]; the other is surface mass balance, which is how much melting of the
surface is taking place that is running into the ocean. Greenland has to be a
concern for both of those. Right now, each of those two aspects is contributing
to generate about half the ice loss in Greenland. Surface melting is
increasing, so that has to be a concern. So that is part of the increasing
contribution to sea level rise.
"LOSING THE LAND GLACIERS LEADS TO OTHER EXTREMELY SERIOUS PROBLEMS, LIKE LACK
OF WATER FOR DRINKING AND IRRIGATING CROPS."
Also, Greenland is a player in this dynamic contribution that we still do not
understand.... There are complex triggering mechanisms like atmospheric and
oceanic heat that both open the valves and pull the corks totally out of the
bottles - bottles meaning the ice that was previously holding the ice sheets in
place and keeping them from flowing down into the water - and the ice flows
faster into the oceans. That dynamic response is what we are trying to
understand better, because it's an oceanographic and an atmospheric scientist's
problem as well as one for glaciologists.
But we are seeing immediate increases to sea level there [in Greenland], and a
dynamic response that could be significant and play out over decades, not
centuries, and that is likely to be triggered in both Greenland, Washington
State, Alaska and other places.
Dahr Jamail: Triggering it is complex, with the aforementioned linkages, but
also the evolution of that. Exactly how does the ice sheet respond as it
continues to deliver ice and melt? How fast does that evolve? It may not evolve
quite as rapidly as models suggest, but then again maybe it does.
Robert Bindschadler: We see tidewater glaciers making catastrophic retreats in
Greenland, and we are trying to see if ice sheets can respond the same way. It
could well be on decadal time scales, not measured in centuries as it was in
the past.
The surface melting in Greenland, though, is immediate: We are sure of it, and
it is easiest to measure. [NASA published a recent study showing that the ice
covering Greenland is melting faster than previously believed. NASA has also
published an intriguing short video that shows the accelerating melting of
Greenland. The National Research Council of the National Academies has recently
published similar findings.]
Dahr Jamail: In the Arctic, things continue to look grim. On September 11,
2015, Arctic sea ice dropped to its fourth-lowest level on record, amid what is
now a decades-long ACD-generated decline. It seems clear we should expect this
trend to continue, correct?
Robert Bindschadler: Generally each year this is increasing. It is anticipated
as a positive feedback mechanism, as once you expose the sea ice cover you
expose more dark ocean that absorbs more solar energy, which speeds it all up.
We have known this for 30 years. It is a very strong, very disturbing positive
feedback mechanism with obvious global implications.
Dahr Jamail: One thing we don't hear too much about amidst the general
conversation about ACD is the loss of land ice, both in the Arctic and
elsewhere around the world, like in Alaska, the Andes and glaciers in Central
Asia. Another recent study provided some worrisome news about glaciers in
Central Asia, where it is now estimated that they have melted away four times
faster than the global average since the early 1960s, losing more than
one-quarter of their total mass in that time frame. Given that glaciers
comprise a primary water source for millions of people in China, Kyrgyzstan,
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this does not bode well. How much impact does this
have on sea level rise, and what trends are you seeing?
Robert Bindschadler: If all the land ice melts, all the ice caps, land
glaciers, etc.... you would still only get less than half a meter [of] sea
level rise globally. But this remains a concern, because this is at the front
edge, as this component comes into play with warming. You don't need a lot of
complex dynamics to melt the land glaciers. It's like Greenland's surface; it
just melts without other factors. But losing the land glaciers leads to other
extremely serious problems, like lack of water for drinking and irrigating
crops.
"EVERY DEGREE OF HEAT INCREASE MELTS AN ADDITIONAL 30 FEET OF ICE, EACH YEAR.
SO THAT IS A POWERFUL HEAT GUN."
Dahr Jamail: There are IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]
glaciologists monitoring this and trying to quantify how climate changes are
manifesting in the reduction of glaciers, and most of their basic projections
are that there will be a lot of melting and reduction in the next few decades,
then a trailing off as less ice of this type exists around the globe, then
progressing into subsequent decades where there will only be little patches [of
glacial ice on land] that remain. This assessment includes the Andes and
Himalaya, and Alaska, where the bigger reservoirs are.
Robert Bindschadler: I think at least half of all the ice in North America and
the Himalaya could be gone by 2100. That assessment is from the IPCC, which is
the most careful, conservative and comprehensive data. There will always be
patches that exist longer, as there will always be glaciers in deep cirques
facing north that never see the sun, but that half meter they have to
contribute to sea level rise will be mostly played out by 2100.
Dahr Jamail: When we last spoke you went into detail about the mechanics that
cause climate scientists to be overly conservative in their predictions. Please
sum up how this happens for our readers, since it is an ongoing phenomenon.
Robert Bindschadler: Climate models have been criticized as being too dramatic
and overestimating response, but it's just the opposite: They tend to be too
conservative because they are tied to data that was used from the beginning of
studies. So they are tuned in to what has been going on, not able to capture
all the acceleration that we are witnessing.
But as things continue to ramp up and the data captures more of that
acceleration, the models will then project more acceleration. But in general,
they tend to underestimate these positive feedbacks. Our observations compared
to past projections are showing that things are continually worse than we had
projected them. That is not a cause to distrust the models, but a cause for
broader concern for what is happening around the planet.
Dahr Jamail: In Antarctica, a world-renowned climate scientist recently
reported that the "sleeping giant" Eastern Antarctic ice sheet, which comprises
the vast majority of the ice in Antarctica, is far more sensitive to ACD than
we previously believed. If it melted, it would contribute 50 meters to global
sea level rise. What are your observations about the possibility of this
occurring?
Robert Bindschadler: There are regions of Antarctica where the ice is sitting
on a bed that is well below sea level. So this feature is marine ice sheet
instability, which is driving a lot of the WAIS [Western Antarctic ice sheet]
focus, for sure. When we look at paleoclimate data and try to assess how high
sea level was long ago, you have to add in some of the melt from EAIS [Eastern
Antarctic ice sheet], as Greenland, Washington, Alaska and other land ice areas
melting do not provide enough sea level rise to match what we found in the
paleoclimate data... EAIS ice core suggest a fairly stable configuration over
the last hundreds of thousands [of] years. I'm still far more concerned about
the WAIS as the big player, along with Greenland as the near-term concern, than
I am about the EAIS. I've yet to see data to shift my focus away from Greenland
and the WAIS.
[Another study reveals that all of the ice in the Antarctic will melt if all of
the fossil fuels that we are currently aware of are burned. Given that there is
no evidence to support the idea that global political will is aimed at weaning
the global economy off fossil fuel use, we must take this information very
seriously. The study shows that, if Antarctica melts, global temperatures will
rise an average of 12 degrees Celsius, and major cities like Berlin, Shanghai,
New York and numerous others will cease to exist.]
Dahr Jamail: Given the dramatic impacts that the loss of most land ice,
eventually the Arctic sea ice and the WAIS, and possibly parts of the EAIS,
will have on the planet and its species, it is important for people to become
better acquainted with the processes that are causing the melting. In this way,
perhaps more knowledge of what our emissions are doing to impact the natural
world and its systems could cause people to be more mindful when it comes to
driving a car or hopping on another jet. Please go into detail about how our
already having warmed the planet just 0.85 degrees Celsius is causing tectonic
shifts in the atmospheric and ocean current circulatory systems of Earth.
Robert Bindschadler: Speaking about what is impacting Antarctica, the basics of
it are that the atmospheric winds influence the ocean and the ocean affects the
ice. These are all at play in Greenland, too. In the Antarctic, you have the
circumpolar winds rotating clockwise around the continent, and these isolate
the continent.
Two things result from this: The first is that the Antarctic is isolated from
other weather patterns, so as the rest of the world has warmed, the Antarctic
hasn't warmed as much. So that causes an increased isolation, as the
temperature gradient of the warm tropics and the cold Antarctic increases, that
causes an increase in pressure. That pressure has increased the speed of the
circumpolar winds.
The second thing that results from this is the winds drag the ocean along with
it. So there is a huge, strong, powerful, broad current, the Antarctic
circumpolar current, that is spun up and drag along by the winds. So now we
have the ocean going around faster and faster because the air is dragging it
faster. In the Southern Hemisphere, because of the rotation of the planet, the
faster ocean water is turning a little more to the left, and that steers it
away from the continent of Antarctica, so that is forcing water from a greater
depth to upwell high enough for it to spill onto the continental shelf. And
this is warm water because in the tropics you have warm water on top and cold
water down deep. In the polar oceans, you have three layers, a cold surface,
then a warm layer, then the cold deep waters, because sea ice freezes and melts
every year, hence the creation of the cold surface layer.
So it's the surface layer being pushed away, and the upwelling is warm.
So once it does that, the continental shelf is tilted down toward the ice
sheet, so the warm, dense, salty water gets onto the shelf, and hugs the shelf,
and flows down toward the ice sheet, contacting it at the grounding zone where
the ice is, melting the ice very, very rapidly. Every degree of heat increase
melts an additional 30 feet of ice, each year. So that is a powerful heat gun.
Dahr Jamail: In the United States, a glaciologist with more than 30 years of
experience in the field recently described the loss of glaciers in the Pacific
Northwest as "disastrous." "This is the single biggest volume loss in the last
50 years," he said of the region that has seen its glaciers shrink by between
25 and 40 percent since the mid-1980s. Another scientist estimates the region's
glaciers are already smaller than they have been for at least the last four
millennia. Dramatic reports like this are coming out on a nearly daily basis.
However, we will still have rebound years of cooler temperatures and higher
snowfalls, which ACD deniers like to point toward as "proof" that there is no
"global warming." Talk about the pitfalls of looking at short-term results that
point in either direction.
Robert Bindschadler: It's tempting, even for scientists, if there's a really
warm year, to point to that and say, "See!" But if there's a rebound the next
year, the naysayers will be pointing to that and saying, "See!"
Scientists have to discount the individual year-to-year behavior and stay
focused on the trends. There is more confidence in the trends. But especially
in the Pacific Northwest where you and I live, these past 12 months have been
useful from a communication aspect, because we've been experiencing what I have
to say is the new normal... the drought, the significantly reduced snowpacks.
And there's been talk of this throughout the winter: In the media here, they
are mentioning the increased likelihood of droughts.
Then this last summer, when our rivers were closed to fishing, that is when
educators talk about this as being a "teachable" moment. This is more common
now. Once people experience something, it is no longer theoretical. This can
then be used as an example of what the models are pointing out. So, more and
more people are paying attention. Another example is the wildfires being a
direct consequence of the drought. Because people are actually experiencing
these things now, it's easier to talk about what it's going to look and feel
like. The dots we are trying to connect are getting closer and closer together.
Dahr Jamail, a Truthout staff reporter, is the author of The Will to Resist:
Soldiers Who Refuse to Fight in Iraq and Afghanistan, (Haymarket Books, 2009),
and Beyond the Green Zone: Dispatches From an Unembedded Journalist in Occupied
Iraq, (Haymarket Books, 2007). Jamail reported from Iraq for more than a year,
as well as from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Turkey over the last ten years, and
has won the Martha Gellhorn Award for Investigative Journalism, among other
awards.
His third book, The Mass Destruction of Iraq: Why It Is Happening, and Who Is
Responsible, co-written with William Rivers Pitt, is available now on Amazon.
He lives and works in Washington State.
To see more stories like this, visit "Planet or Profit?"
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