Ankaras Climbdown on Assad
Published on
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
by
The Hindu
Ankaras Climbdown on Assad
Turkey warms up to Russia and Iran in a bid to exit before a total rout of
its proxies in Syria
by
Vijay Prashad
Women after being evacuated by the Syria Democratic Forces from
IS-controlled Manbij in Aleppo, Syria. (Photo: Reuters)
Sharp changes in the war on Syria have impacted the policy of the Turkish
government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Initially Mr. Erdogan believed
that the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would fall
precipitously. It did not. Rather than overthrow Mr. Assad, the war has
placed Turkey itself in danger a failed coup on July 15 came alongside a
renewed war against Turkeys Kurdish population, just as Islamic State (IS)
attacks in the country have raised alarm bells about Mr. Erdogans
adventurism. An adjustment of Turkeys policy is now on the cards. The
Presidents August 9 trip to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin
and the warm words exchanged when the Iranian Foreign Minister came to
Turkey on August 10 indicate a change.
Failure in Syria
In 2011, Turkey had hastily come out in favour of the removal of Mr. Assad.
It is not heroism to fight against your own people, Mr. Erdogan said in
November 2011. This was a curious call from the head of government in a
state that had been at war against its own people, namely the Kurds, since
the 1980s. The call amplified the chorus in the Gulf Arab and Western
capitals. Their main goal was to weaken Iran by overthrowing the Assad
government.
Mr. Erdogan hoped that his fraternal Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would ride
into Damascus on the wings of Western-driven regime change. But the West was
wary. It provided diplomatic and military support to the rebels, but found
the road to Damascus blocked by Russia, Iran and China. None of them wanted
to see the scenario of Iraq or Libya replayed in Syria. Furthermore, Russia
and Iran had material interests in Syria that they did not want to
jeopardise. Now, five years later, Mr. Erdogans forward policy has failed,
which is why he has warmed up to both Russia and Iran in a bid to chart out
a path from the Syrian quagmire.
Turkeys long border with Syria proved to be the most accessible route for
arms and fighters. Gulf Arab and Western intelligence prowled the towns of
the borders, working with Turkish intelligence to provide support for the
motley crew of proxy armies. It was along this border that the Kurdish
fighters, supported by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group banned in
Turkey, began to make inroads. Last week, a coalition of the Kurds and Arabs
under the flag of the Syria Democratic Forces seized the IS-held town of
Manbij. Kurdish gains along the Turkish border have been anathema to Mr.
Erdogans government, which had restarted its war against the Kurdish
population inside Turkey as well as against PKK camps in Iraq. It was this
war that opened up tensions between Washington and Ankara, with the former
uneasy with the Turkish assault on some of the main groups that had been
fighting the IS.
It is not yet clear who authorised the failed coup against the civilian
government in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan blames the movement of his former ally
Fethullah Gülen. Since Mr. Gülen lives in the U.S. and because of rumours
that the U.S. troops at the Turkish base in Incirlik had helped the coup
plotters, animosity against the U.S. rose sharply. In late July, thousands
surrounded the Incirlik base, burning U.S. flags and chanting Death to the
U.S.. This was the day before the head of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff
General Joseph Dunford arrived in Turkey to soothe the heated relations. The
firmest indicator that the U.S. opposed the coup, said Mr. Erdogan, would be
the extradition of Mr. Gülen. Since this is not likely to take place,
tensions between the U.S., North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and Turkey
will remain.
Russia and Iran outreach
Instability in Turkey as a result of the Syrian war has created great
economic problems. The doors to the Western market are not wide open, while
the war in Syria has blocked the West Asian marketplace. Renewed ties with
Russia have restarted the Turkish Stream gas lines and prompted a Russian
reaffirmation of its promise to build nuclear reactors in Turkey. The
business lobbies close to Mr. Erdogan can breathe again.
Over the course of the past year, both Turkeys proxy armies in Syria and
its Syrian political allies have seen their position weakened. Saudi
Arabias games with the Syrian opposition bloc has snuffed out the dominance
of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, under heavy Syrian and Russian
bombardment, the extremist rebel fighters of Aleppo, including the Turkish
proxies, have faced setbacks. It is clear that the extremists, including the
Turkish proxies, will not be able to hold on for too long. Turkey seeks an
exit before a full battlefield humiliation.
During his visit to Moscow, Mr. Erdogan suggested that Turkey needed to
coordinate Syria policy with Russia and Iran. On August 20, his Prime
Minister Binali Yildirim said that Mr. Assad could stay in power for a
transitional period. The slogan Assad must go is no longer fundamental to
Turkish foreign policy.
The day after Mr. Erdogan left Russia, a delegation of senior Turkish
military officers arrived to coordinate a military command centre. Turkey is
eager that the Kurdish forces not take territory along the border. Russian
military officers told them that this would be a priority. A few days later
the Iranian and Turkish Foreign Ministers announced close coordination on
Syria. This is surely a blow to Turkeys proxies, and indeed to the Gulf
Arabs who have come to rely upon Turkey as the pathway into Syria.
Irans Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the press in Ankara that
the era of bullying and coups is over and that peoples choice cannot be
suppressed by a military group. The statement was about the failed coup
in Turkey. It could just as well have been with reference to Syria, a
country destroyed by regional ambitions. The rebalancing of Turkish foreign
entanglements might finally allow Syrias future to be less grim.
© 2016 The Hindu
Vijay Prashad
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Ankaras Climbdown on Assad
Published on
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
by The Hindu
Ankaras Climbdown on Assad
Turkey warms up to Russia and Iran in a bid to exit before a total rout of
its proxies in Syria
by
Vijay Prashad
5 Comments
Women after being evacuated by the Syria Democratic Forces from
IS-controlled Manbij in Aleppo, Syria. (Photo: Reuters)
Sharp changes in the war on Syria have impacted the policy of the
Turkish government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Initially Mr. Erdogan
believed that the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would fall
precipitously. It did not. Rather than overthrow Mr. Assad, the war has
placed Turkey itself in danger a failed coup on July 15 came alongside a
renewed war against Turkeys Kurdish population, just as Islamic State (IS)
attacks in the country have raised alarm bells about Mr. Erdogans
adventurism. An adjustment of Turkeys policy is now on the cards. The
Presidents August 9 trip to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin
and the warm words exchanged when the Iranian Foreign Minister came to
Turkey on August 10 indicate a change.
Failure in Syria
In 2011, Turkey had hastily come out in favour of the removal of Mr.
Assad. It is not heroism to fight against your own people, Mr. Erdogan
said in November 2011. This was a curious call from the head of government
in a state that had been at war against its own people, namely the Kurds,
since the 1980s. The call amplified the chorus in the Gulf Arab and Western
capitals. Their main goal was to weaken Iran by overthrowing the Assad
government.
Mr. Erdogan hoped that his fraternal Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would
ride into Damascus on the wings of Western-driven regime change. But the
West was wary. It provided diplomatic and military support to the rebels,
but found the road to Damascus blocked by Russia, Iran and China. None of
them wanted to see the scenario of Iraq or Libya replayed in Syria.
Furthermore, Russia and Iran had material interests in Syria that they did
not want to jeopardise. Now, five years later, Mr. Erdogans forward policy
has failed, which is why he has warmed up to both Russia and Iran in a bid
to chart out a path from the Syrian quagmire.
http://www.commondreams.org/against-oddshttp://www.commondreams.org/against-
odds
Turkeys long border with Syria proved to be the most accessible route for
arms and fighters. Gulf Arab and Western intelligence prowled the towns of
the borders, working with Turkish intelligence to provide support for the
motley crew of proxy armies. It was along this border that the Kurdish
fighters, supported by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group banned in
Turkey, began to make inroads. Last week, a coalition of the Kurds and Arabs
under the flag of the Syria Democratic Forces seized the IS-held town of
Manbij. Kurdish gains along the Turkish border have been anathema to Mr.
Erdogans government, which had restarted its war against the Kurdish
population inside Turkey as well as against PKK camps in Iraq. It was this
war that opened up tensions between Washington and Ankara, with the former
uneasy with the Turkish assault on some of the main groups that had been
fighting the IS.
It is not yet clear who authorised the failed coup against the civilian
government in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan blames the movement of his former ally
Fethullah Gülen. Since Mr. Gülen lives in the U.S. and because of rumours
that the U.S. troops at the Turkish base in Incirlik had helped the coup
plotters, animosity against the U.S. rose sharply. In late July, thousands
surrounded the Incirlik base, burning U.S. flags and chanting Death to the
U.S.. This was the day before the head of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff
General Joseph Dunford arrived in Turkey to soothe the heated relations. The
firmest indicator that the U.S. opposed the coup, said Mr. Erdogan, would be
the extradition of Mr. Gülen. Since this is not likely to take place,
tensions between the U.S., North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and Turkey
will remain.
Russia and Iran outreach
Instability in Turkey as a result of the Syrian war has created great
economic problems. The doors to the Western market are not wide open, while
the war in Syria has blocked the West Asian marketplace. Renewed ties with
Russia have restarted the Turkish Stream gas lines and prompted a Russian
reaffirmation of its promise to build nuclear reactors in Turkey. The
business lobbies close to Mr. Erdogan can breathe again.
Over the course of the past year, both Turkeys proxy armies in Syria and
its Syrian political allies have seen their position weakened. Saudi
Arabias games with the Syrian opposition bloc has snuffed out the dominance
of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, under heavy Syrian and Russian
bombardment, the extremist rebel fighters of Aleppo, including the Turkish
proxies, have faced setbacks. It is clear that the extremists, including the
Turkish proxies, will not be able to hold on for too long. Turkey seeks an
exit before a full battlefield humiliation.
During his visit to Moscow, Mr. Erdogan suggested that Turkey needed to
coordinate Syria policy with Russia and Iran. On August 20, his Prime
Minister Binali Yildirim said that Mr. Assad could stay in power for a
transitional period. The slogan Assad must go is no longer fundamental to
Turkish foreign policy.
The day after Mr. Erdogan left Russia, a delegation of senior Turkish
military officers arrived to coordinate a military command centre. Turkey is
eager that the Kurdish forces not take territory along the border. Russian
military officers told them that this would be a priority. A few days later
the Iranian and Turkish Foreign Ministers announced close coordination on
Syria. This is surely a blow to Turkeys proxies, and indeed to the Gulf
Arabs who have come to rely upon Turkey as the pathway into Syria.
Irans Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the press in Ankara that
the era of bullying and coups is over and that peoples choice cannot be
suppressed by a military group. The statement was about the failed coup
in Turkey. It could just as well have been with reference to Syria, a
country destroyed by regional ambitions. The rebalancing of Turkish foreign
entanglements might finally allow Syrias future to be less grim.
© 2016 The Hindu
