An Alternative to the Status Quo
Erick Erickson Nov 22, 2018 12:01 AM Townhall.com
Had John C. Fremont not run as a Republican in 1856, there
would probably would have been no Lincoln in 1860. The
Republican Party formed in the 1850s with the collapse of the
Whig Party. The central unifying issue Republicans shared was
abolition of slavery. It unified people across political
parties, bringing them together into something new.
In the early 1990s, fueled by a single billionaire's calls for
reform, the Reform Party sprang up under H. Ross Perot. He won
18.9 percent of the popular vote. The Reform Party, unlike the
Republicans in the 1800s, was one man's party, and it went
nowhere. For the first time in more than a century, the country
may finally be on the verge of doing what Perot could not do.
The time could be right for a viable third party.
If you pay attention in Florida, Senator-elect Rick Scott got
45 percent of the Hispanic vote. Brian Kemp, the Governor-elect
in Georgia, got 38 percent of the Hispanic vote. In fact,
Republicans did far better with the Hispanic vote than the media
would have anyone believe is possible. Also, consider black men.
According to the adjusted exit polling, about 18 percent of black
men voted Republican in Texas, up from 14 percent two years ago.
In Wisconsin, the number skyrocketed to 21 percent from 8 percent
two years ago.
The trend away from the Democrats by minority voters is almost
entirely because of cultural issues. The Democrats' growing
hostility to faith, conservative social values, etc. is a real
Achilles heel for the party with minority voters - particularly
Hispanic voters.
Concurrent to that, the white suburbs fled the GOP. High-income
white voters in the suburbs who have been reliably Republican
have had enough of President Donald Trump. They want a new
political home. Combine white suburban voters with black and
Hispanic voters who will not go to the GOP because of Trump, but
no longer feel at home in the Democratic Party, and there appears
to be real room for a third party in the country now - one that
is viable, unlike the Libertarian or Green parties.
I suspect this all runs through the GOP, however. Put up
someone in the 2020 Republican presidential primary against Trump
running on these sorts of themes and the person probably cannot
win - but probably could start a third party movement as a
sizable portion, though not a majority, of Republicans tired of
President Trump leave their political home and make it an
acceptable place for black and Hispanic voters.
The GOP would become a mostly white rural party. The Democrats
would become a mostly wealthy, urban white party. This new
party, call it the Federalists, would be a coalition of former
Republicans and minority Democrats with a healthy addition of
evangelicals, all of whom think the two parties have failed the
country.
Such a move would probably not be successful in 2020. It would
probably lead to Trump's defeat, thereby making remaining
Republicans bitter toward the effort. But the data from the
midterms show pretty clearly that the suburban Republicans and
the socially conservative minority Democrats are all ready for a
new political home. It would not be an immediate successful
enterprise, but could potentially sustain itself, so long as it
makes the party one of ideas and not one man's enterprise like
the Reform Party of Ross Perot.
For those of us who are fiscally conservative, we'd also have
to get used to the idea that this would not be a small government
party, per se. But it could no doubt position itself as a
fiscally responsible, free-market party, unlike either of the
existing parties.
The GOP belongs to Donald Trump for the time being, and there
is no reason for a primary challenge against him. But the
midterm data all very compellingly suggest that if someone wanted
to try a go at resetting the American political coalitions, now
would be the time.