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Mumbai , July 1 : TREASURY income, which has boosted banks'
profits for the past two years, may have caused a dent on the bottom line of
some of them in the first quarter of this financial year. According to
analysts, all banks dealing in the debt markets will be hit; only the extent
will vary as interest rates rose by 0.70 per cent during the last three months.
Ms Kalpana Morparia, Deputy Managing Director, ICICI Bank, said, "Treasury
gains for the first quarter will be lower for all banks. But I don't see any
losses taking place. On the investment book, net-to- net it should be
positive." According to Mr Ritesh Maheshwari,
Head-Financial Sector Ratings, Crisil, one can segregate the banks into two
categories ? public sector banks and other banks. The public sector banks are
likely to benefit from a cushion of long-dated, high coupon securities and
unrealised appreciation from it which will add to their `income on
investments.' PSU banks, therefore, should post marginal or even good profits. The remaining banks, which are mostly
traders and have securities of residual maturity 2-4 years, could incur losses
on the treasury front. For the PSU banks, Crisil analysis has shown that another
240-250 basis points rise will not hit them on their profit and loss account. For
the current year, the feeling is that if interest rates rise as is expected,
treasury losses should be offset by increased lending margins. Worldwide banks
make more money in a scenario of rising interest rates. This is because while
banks have to give interest on deposits mostly at a fixed rate, the interest
rate earned on loans is mostly at a floating rate and this would go up as
interest rates harden, leading to higher lending margins. But the recent rise in interest rates
has been sudden and many players were not fully prepared for the same, said Mr
A. Prassana, Vice-President, Research-Fixed Income, I-Sec. Most banks and bond
houses have been selling on losses of Rs 3 to Rs 4 per paper in recent days,
with their loss limits triggered. |
