[AZ-Observing] Winter climate forecasts

  • From: Brian Skiff <bas@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2018 13:40:56 -0700

The new long-range forecasts published monthly from the NWS
climate group were issued today.  Briefly, they are buying into
an El Nino winter pattern, which typically means (but does not 
guarantee) a wet winter for the US Southwest.  They also
forecast an extended monsoon-like pattern persisting through
September and October.

     Maps are here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php

...and the discussion is here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html

The temperature maps are "all red", and rapidly becoming less
and less useful, since the global warming trend (including the
lack of Arctic Ocean ice, which they mention specifically)
is swamping the seasonal signals.


\Brian


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