[AZ-Observing] Re: Spring weather prospects
- From: "Stanley A. Gorodenski" <stan_gorodenski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 22:24:14 -0800
Brian Skiff wrote:
> Now that I can post again to this list (a problem at our end):
>
>
>
>>> I assume, then, that it means we have only three months...
>>> before we get into the next round of rainy weather - the Monsoon.
>>>
>>>
>
> If you look at the maps I cited, you'll see that the prospects are
>for "normal" precip for the rest of the year, or the climate-modelling odds
>don't lean much either way at least. What is more certain is that temps
>are very likely to be above normal for the rest of the year.
>
>
>
Yes, I did look at the layman writeup of the long outlook. It said
normal (or something to that effect) weather after March, but even with
so called "normal precip" Arizona does have a monsoon season. I doubt
one can say at this time what kind of monsoon we will have this year
with high confidence even with a forecast of "normal precip". There have
been wet ones and there have been dry ones in years that are more
"normal" than the one we are experiencing now. At this point in time
the weather forecasts are just that, forecasts, not estimates of some
fixed and static quantity.
Stan
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