[AZ-Observing] Re: Fred's Meadow condition
- From: "Don--Laraine Pfirrmann" <dmarc-noreply@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> (Redacted sender "sviolanthe@xxxxxxxxx" for DMARC)
- To: "az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:42:10 -0700
I'm heading out to Fred's Meadow on Saturday and hope to stay for 5 days or so.
Don Pfirrmann
On Friday, August 22, 2014 6:13 PM, Jim Waters <james.t.waters@xxxxxxx> wrote:
-----Original Message-----
From: Brian Skiff
Sent: Thursday, August 21, 2014 9:53 PM
To: az-observing@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [AZ-Observing] Re: Fred's Meadow condition
On Thu, 2014-08-21 at 23:41 -0400, Paul Lind wrote:
> Steve, thanks for the update. -Paul
Looks as though things will clear out up here
by Friday night, but I doubt it'll really be
workable viewing-wise until at least Saturday night
to let the air dry out a bit. The coming week,
in any case, looks favorable from Sunday onward.
It might be worth mentioning here that the
new run of medium-term climate forecasts were
issued earlier today (Thursday):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.php
...which continues the trend of higher odds of
wetter weather through the winter. The El Nino
signal is rather weak, so high precipitation
amounts (total snowfall in Flagstaff especially)
are not strongly correlated. But I continue to
operate on the assumption that things will be
more cloudy than usual through the normally
clear autumn months. One possibly interesting
effect is that much of the slightly warmer Pacific
ocean water is not along the equator (i.e. the
typical El Nino pattern), but instead is along
the coast westward from Baja and southern California.
The extra atmospheric moisture associated with
that warm zone is why the precip maps linked above show
wet weather for the Southwest from now right through
the end of the year. The normally dry southwest winds
from over the eastern Pacific that we get in autumn
will instead be rather humid. So any disturbances
in that flow will increase the odds of having rain
(and eventually snow) events. I'm betting even more
on lots of subtropical-jet cirrus and altocumulus/stratus
for days on end even if it is not especially rainy.
As Steve Coe is fond of saying: we shall see!
\Brian
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