[asi_xc] Re: 8/10-11?

  • From: Omri Kalinsky <omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: asi_xc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sun, 11 Aug 2019 20:03:29 -0700

According to the XCSkies GFS and NAM models, both Tue and Wed should be blue up until you get S of Lake Tahoe. This is for 14:00, but at least the clouds should be near class A or above. We'll see how it actually pans out. I didn't ask Gene about Wed actually, he just threw it out there as he said several people already requested it. He also already put his name on the towplane schedule for Wed, but it shows up for 13:30, so I don't know if that's an error or it really is late tows only.

On 8/11/19 7:47 PM, Brian S. wrote:

I will plan on Tues or Wed if the forecast holds. Lets wait till Monday morning forecast to make the tow pilot request.

On SkySight Cumulus depth seems to be the best prediction of cumulus. It seems to be a little conservative in its prediction from my experience.  I also only have a few months of experience with SkySight so still learning.  Cumulus cloud base fprecast is helpful also but I normally use the point forecast tool and check it in several spots when planning a trip to the South like Mineral Peak, Mt Siegal and Mt Paterson etc.

Fly Safe, Brian

On Sun, Aug 11, 2019 at 5:41 PM Omri Kalinsky <omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:

    Gene said he'd tow on Wed. If it's still forecast to be good on
    Tue, I'll take a day off and join you. I refilled Oxygen
    yesterday, it had about 1200 PSI as I left it.
    Today turned out pretty crappy (at least for me). I shared one
    halfway decent thermal with Jimmy over the field and I left at
    7500' thinking there was better lift ahead under a scraggily cu. I
    didn't find anything where I could actually get a positive rate on
    the averager all the way to the ground. Ended up landing after
    about 30 minutes of flight and just derigged as it was already
    almost 14:00. Jimmy was still up when I left the field at 15:45,
    hopefully he at least had a good day.

    On 8/11/19 10:51 AM, Brian S. wrote:
    Wednesday looks pretty good on SkySight. Light winds with some
    cumulus expected in the local area and more to the South.  No tow
    pilot as yet but we could request one if two or three want to fly.

     Hope we have Oxygen also as I also am a little low.

    Fly Safe, Brian

    On Sun, Aug 11, 2019 at 10:11 AM Brian S. <bfstvns@xxxxxxxxx
    <mailto:bfstvns@xxxxxxxxx>> wrote:

        This was pretty typical for summertime wave . There was too
        much thermal activity for a weak wave to set up properly.
        Sometimes late in the afternoon as thermal activity dies a
        nice wave can set up and run right into the evening. I have
        always wondered what it would be like to be up there with
        sunset lenticulars . From the ground they look awesome !!!

        On Sat, Aug 10, 2019 at 8:52 PM Omri Kalinsky
        <omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> wrote:

            That's indeed what I got today. I think I hit marginal
            wave once or twice but it was so patchy and the winds
            were too southerly so I couldn't keep it long enough to
            get well above the clouds and into consistent laminar
            wave. Ridges were working nicely though later in the
            afternoon. I'm tied down for the night, so I'll give it a
            go tomorrow.


            On 8/10/19 7:55 AM, Brian S. wrote:
            SkySight is showing weak wave for Saturday and expect
            some rotor and broken thermals. I think it the wave will
            be disorganized.

              Sunday the winds calm down but a mediocre blue day

            Fly Safe, Brian

            On Fri, Aug 9, 2019 at 5:54 PM Omri Kalinsky
            <omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:omri@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>

                So tomorrow my guess is we should get weak to
                moderate wave, I'm seeing 30-35 knot SW winds at 18k
                throughout the entire region. Not sure if it'll blue
                or lenny wave. The convective lift will only go to
                the low teens in our area, so I don't think the
                convection will interfere much with the wave,
                especially early. Some chance of rain just W of us
                early around noon. The winds will remain throughout
                the day so with a late landing, a nice long distance
                flight is a real possibility.
                Sunday looks like a weak thermal day. Probably blue,
                again lift going into the low teens. 15 knots or so
                of SW winds aloft, enough to make the thermals
                harder to work but most likely not enough for wave.
                I plan on giving it a go both days as usual.

                Happy Soaring,
                    SL aka Omri

                On 8/9/19 5:19 PM, David Prather (Redacted sender
                dwprather68 for DMARC) wrote:
                It looks like we have a front moving through. The
                RASP and NAM show high southwest winds in the
                boundary layer and relatively low max attainable

                There is indication from the RASP 500 mb vertical
                velocity that there could be wave. What are you all
                seeing and who is planning to fly this weekend?


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