[AR] Re: Say it ain't so Elon...

  • From: John Schilling <john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2018 19:28:15 -0800

On 1/10/2018 8:20 AM, Henry Spencer wrote:


And generally the upper stage considerably outweighs the payload, so if the payload was still attached, an open-loop deorbit wouldn't achieve quite the planned trajectory but would probably still get low enough for air drag to take over.

A LEO payload will outweigh the upper stage by 5-10x.  It won't be a question of the open-loop deorbit achieving "quite" the planned trajectory, but of it achieving anything even vaguely resembling the planned trajectory.  I'd bet at least even money that the stage+payload would still be stuck in a stable orbit, and if it did come down it would be far outside the planned impact area.  Probably over land or in the wrong ocean.

If we aren't getting an unexplained large new object in LEO, and we aren't getting reports of a bolide on USA 280's track but far downrange, it's likely that the payload separated and the upper stage alone deorbited properly.  But at this early a date, it's possible those reports are slowly working their way through the system.

      John Schilling
      john.schilling@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
      (661) 718-0955

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