[alpaca_fibre] Re: An idea is a good first step

  • From: "Sixth Day Farm" <home@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <alpaca_fibre@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 12:53:35 -0500

Dear Ian,

Your idea for a sire referencing program is a good first step in that it
will provide a relatively standardized set of phenotypic data that ought
to be available, but usually isn't, on any herdsire that any breeder
wishes to use for stud services.  It will be helpful in improving
selection accuracy, one of the four factors of Bourdon's Key Equation
for increasing the rate of genetic gain, as I described in my chapters
for your handbook (which will be published someday?).  The other three
factors being selection intensity, genetic variation and generation
interval.  Since financial factors make it difficult for us in the
alpaca industry today to exert much selection pressure, particularly on
the female side, selection accuracy becomes even more important if we
are to have any significant rate of genetic gain in our breeding.  Your
sire reference program, as described, will help with accuracy of
phenotypic selection of sires, and this is a good first step.
Phenotypic selection is of course the most basic method of estimating
breeding values.  The next step would be to record exactly the same data
in the same way on the breeding females and then even more importantly
on the offspring.  

An even better plan is to step beyond phenotypic selection.  As I said
in my article, "Selection of each alpaca, based only on phenotypic
record, is not very accurate, particularly if the heritability of the
traits under consideration is low. Greater accuracy in estimating
breeding values can be achieved by using more information and more
sophisticated genetic prediction technology."  At this juncture the most
sophisticated genetic prediction technology available to livestock
breeders is to use BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction).  I have been
working with two different geneticists, each of which has decades of
experience writing BLUP programs to generate EPDs and ETAs for other
livestock, for the last three years preparing just such a program for
use in our alpaca breeding program.  The goal is to maximize the rate of
genetic gain and become a producer of superior studs that can be
referenced by your program.  As you remember I spoke a bit about the
mating strategy for my program at one of your seminars.

Here comes the commercial.  I need more good foundation breeding stock
and some equipment to get this program to the next level.  Therefore,
for any interested investors, I have set up a business plan to sell
shares in this endeavor.  Those who invest will then own a share of all
of the foundation stock, as well as any of the offspring produced
including the genetically superior studs we expect to breed down the
road as a result of this scientifically designed and operated breeding
program.  Also, if the investors are also alpaca breeders, they will
have first option to breed their females to any of the studs produced as
well as first option to buy any of the animals that are for sale out of
this program.  In addition, once this business plan is in effect and all
of the remaining investors are on board, we will open up the BLUP
program to other farms that want to confidentially submit the data on
their animals so that they too can get computer generated Estimated
Progeny Differences on their breeding stock which will help them to
increase their rate of genetic gain and develop the best possible sires
on their farms to reference in your program as well.

Anyone seriously interested in owning shares of this scientifically
designed breeding program and the future generations it will produce can
contact me privately by e-mailing journal@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx . Those
interested in reading up on  the details of using quantitative genetics
technology in this way, or who want to do the same thing in their
breeding programs, can see my chapters in your book, my previous
articles in Alpacas Magazine, or any good textbook on the Genetics of
Animal Breeding such as Richard Bourdon's book by the same title.

Now that you are "Up Over" (as opposed to "Down Under") I am hoping that
we can see each other more often.

Cheers and Good Health,

Wayne Jarvis
Sixth Day Farm

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