In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their
competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google,
Apple, Amazon 'et al' are
There have always been the 3 constants ...
Death, Taxes and CHANGE!
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't
own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in
the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you
can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds,
with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the
future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than
human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can
recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the
public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You
don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it
will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will
not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be
productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and
will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that.
We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die
each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000
miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident
in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each
year.
Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies
try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech
companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and
build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the
insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people
will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy
because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become
incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential
curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy
companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent
competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology
will take care of that strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt
water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have
scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine
what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants,
for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are
companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tri-corder" from Star
Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood
sample and you breath into it.
It then analyses 54 bio markers that will identify nearly any disease. It
will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to
world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical
establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to
$400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All
major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The
space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large
amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe
at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer
is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed
for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a
lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in
such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field
instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is
now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now,
30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need
that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein
to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be
labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject
the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're
in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if
you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when
they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The
increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year
increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way
more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has
the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at
school in First World countries. There have already been releases of
software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases it in Arabic, Suaheli
and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English
app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become
fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.
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