[TN-Bird] TN Birders by the Numbers: Total Ticks, ABA Area and Region

     We have all been there.  I was set for a birding trip on Sunday to add a 
few birds at the "sloughs" to my Kentucky list.  My daughter didn't have a 
tennis tournament, my work projects were finally under control, and I thought 
my wife had told me we didn't have a social engagement.  Wrong!   I had 
(forgotten, that is) a lunch appointment with my parents which meant that I 
would have to postpone the trip.  As I thought about my missed opportunities 
(Snow & Greater White-fronted Goose & Redhead--which would have taken me past 
45% for KY), something Bill Pulliam said in a recent email got me thinking.
    I am a social epidemiologist by profession interested in the causes of 
morbidity and mortality (with research/publications mainly in the area of 
infant mortality, homicide & suicide) and in addition to other kinds of 
research methods, I have done "areal" or "ecological" studies in which 
aggregates or groups such as states and counties are the things we study (if 
someone says that poverty rates cause rates of homicide that is an ecological 
study--but don't believe it!).

    Thus, numbers involving states, provinces and North American regions are of 
interest to me, and as I ruminated on my missed KY trip it dawned on me that I 
had three assumptions in my head about birding that could be empirically tested 
with available data: 1. there aren't many TN birders who report Total Ticks 
(where you list the total species seen in states (but not HI), Canadian 
provinces, DC & St.-Pierre & Miquelon, France), 2. the distribution of Total 
Ticks birders by state/province is equivalent to that of the ABA Area list 
(mainly all species in North America north of Mexico), i.e., states/provinces 
that have lots of birders on the ABA Area list will also have a similar 
proportional amount of birders on the Total Ticks list, and 3. the number of 
Tennessee birders is lower than other states/provinces on the ABA Area list.  
It turns out that all of these assumption were incorrect.

STATES/PROVINCES BY REPORTING TOTAL TICKS BIRDERS 

   Not only are TN total tickers not relatively uncommon, but TN is in the top 
10 states/provinces on Total Ticks, tied for the 8th rank (in some notation 
systems this would be rank 3, see table below).  Indeed, only two states, 
Michigan and Washington, have more Total Ticks birders than TN:

1. Michigan (9 birders)
2. Washington (7)
8.-tied  TENNESSEE (6)
8.-t California (6)
8.-t Maryland (6)
8.-t New Jersey (6)
8.-t South Carolina (6)
8.-t Texas (6)
10.-t Colorado (5)
10.-t Massachusetts (5)

(At the bottom, 14 states had no birders, AR = 2, AZ = 1, FL = 2, NH = 2, IA = 
2, MT = 1, NE = 2, NM = 2, NC = 1, VT = 2, WV = 1.)

Note, that the Total Ticks champion for TN is David Chaffin with 10,248 birds 
(a rank of 8 for all total tickers, N = 125), followed by Rick Waldrop with 
7,255 (rank of 28).  The reporting threshold is 4,000 birds.

STATES/PROVINCES BY REPORTING ABA AREA BIRDERS

    While not in the top 10, TN ranks a high 14 in the ABA Area list:

1. California (89 birders)
2. Texas (77)
3. Florida (54)
5.-t Massachusetts (41)
5.-t Michigan (41)
7. Maryland (37)
8. Arizona (36)
9. Colorado (35)
10. New Jersey (33)
11. North Carolina (26)
12. New York (25)
14.-t TENNESSEE (24)
14.-t Pennsylvania (24)

(Among other areas, DC = 3 birders, KY = 2, MS = 3, SD = 0, WV = 2, WY = 3.) 

The TN champion here is Benton Basham with 862 birds (rank of 2 of all 
reporting, N = 976), followed by David Chaffin at 798 (rank of 32).   The 
reporting threshold is 500 birds.

SIMILARITY BETWEEN TOTAL TICKS AND ABA AREA DISTRIBUTIONS

    Note, that while there is a significant positive correlation between Total 
Ticks and ABA Area by state/province, there are important exceptions: Florida 
(rank 3 in the ABA Area), Arizona (8) and North Carolina (11) all place poorly 
in Total Ticks.   These result seem to suggest that total ticking is less 
common in the states that are major birding destinations.

TENNESSEE IN THE REGION

    Beyond the U.S. and Canada as a whole, there is additional regional 
information that is of interest to TN birders.  The U.S. Census has nine 
regional categories of which TN is in the "East South Central," composed also 
of AL, KY & MS.  TN leads these other states in both Total Ticks and the ABA 
Area list.

   Finally, if we include all of the southern census regions (South Atlantic, 
East South Central & West South Central, a total of 14 states), TN leads Total 
Ticks along with SC and TX, and comes in a strong 4th in the ABA Area following 
TX, FL & NC.

    Of course, over time the rank ordering of these states/provinces may change 
(more likely with the Total Ticks distribution because of the overall low 
number of total tickers and how closely spaced the different states are), but 
for now the results for TN birders are very positive indeed compared to other 
states/provinces.

Kevin Breault
Brentwood, TN

Note: these data come from the "2005 ABA Big Day Report & ABA List Report".  
The 2006 reports should be available from the ABA in June, 2007. 
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