[TN-Bird] NOAA: IVAN IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN -- Ivan Post #3

From: "Wallace Coffey" <jwcoffey@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "TN-birds" <tn-bird@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2004 20:29:38 -0400
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
455 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004
NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-150900-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
444 PM EDT (344 PM CDT) TUE SEP 14 2004

...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION...

HURRICANE IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  BECAUSE THE STORM IS
SO LARGE...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR AREA
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM.

INITIALLY...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY.  THE CENTER OF
THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THEN SLOW TO A CRAWL...LINGERING IN THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT RAIN.  RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT BY SUNDAY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...WITH UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  MOST OF THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKE THESE COULD RESULT IN BOTH RIVER
FLOODING...A LONGER TERM EVENT...AND FLASH FLOODING...A SHORT TERM
EVENT.  THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SITUATION. OF COURSE THE EXACT TRACK OF IVAN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH RAIN WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.

BESIDES THE RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORM APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

RESIDENTS OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN AND
BE AWARE OF ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR AREA.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INTERNET
SOURCES...OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION THAT CARRY WEATHER
INFORMATION.Let's go birding...
Wallace Coffey
Bristol, TN


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[TN-Bird] NOAA: IVAN IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN -- Ivan Post #3

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