[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 24 Mar 2013 13:12:30 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: "GovDelivery Weather Updates" <weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: March 24, 2013 1:06:22 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: weatherupdates@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.
>
>
> SPC MD 324
> 03/24/2013 12:52 PM EDT
>
> MD 0324 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...W-CNTRL INDIANA
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1152 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO...CNTRL IL...W-CNTRL INDIANA
>
> CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
>
> VALID 241652Z - 242145Z
>
> SUMMARY...SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSNOW
> WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
>
> DISCUSSION...E-CNTRL IL INTO W-CNTRL INDIANA:
> THE BULK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE AND COARSER-RESOLUTION
> MESOSCALE/GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF
> WARM-CONVEYOR-RELATED PRECIP LEADING A SRN-MO DEEP CYCLONE PER WATER
> VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PROCESSES -- ILLUSTRATED BY RELATIVELY
> REDUCED CONVECTIVE STABILITY PROFILES SAMPLED BY AMDAR DATA FOR
> FLIGHT PATHS CROSSING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT -- ARE GREATLY
> ENHANCING PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. AS THIS PRECIP
> BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED WITH DEEP SUB-FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES
> DOWNSTREAM ACROSS E-CNTRL IL AND W-CNTRL INDIANA...HEAVY SNOW WILL
> OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS IN THE 1730Z-2000Z TIME FRAME. SNOW RATES OF
> 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED UPSTREAM ACROSS
> PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
> FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF THUNDERSNOW...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE
> INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WHERE THE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MORE
> ROBUST OWING TO RELATIVELY WARMER 800-700-MB TEMPERATURES/INFLOW
> BASES PER AMDAR DATA/FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SNOW RATES OF 2 IN/HR WILL
> BE MOST LIKELY WITH THUNDERSNOW.
>
> E-CNTRL MO INTO CNTRL IL:
> HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING...IMPACTING AREAS AROUND ST. LOUIS...WITH
> SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDERSNOW. BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY
> CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED DEFORMATION
> ZONE N/NW OF THE DEEPER CYCLONE CONTINUES TO OFFER FRONTOGENETIC
> ASCENT AMIDST A SUFFICIENT SUPPLY OF DEEPER MOISTURE EMANATING FROM
> THE WARM CONVEYOR STRUCTURE.
>
> ..COHEN.. 03/24/2013
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 40858749 40078703 39508750 38908926 38589026 38389108
> 38719163 39229156 40149036 41018846 40858749
>
> Read more
> SPC MD 323
> 03/24/2013 12:49 PM EDT
>
> MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR KY...TN
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1148 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
>
> VALID 241648Z - 241845Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...THE CHANCES FOR RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
> CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL WILL INCREASE ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER
> THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRANSITIONS ACROSS
> THE REGION. LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OF 1 INCH OR GREATER
> IN DIAMETER PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
>
> DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEPENING SFC LOW
> TRACKING EAST FROM MO BOOTHEEL WITH A NARROW WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
> BELT SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW FROM WRN TN TO MIDDLE TN/KY
> BORDER AREA. DEEP LAYER FORCED ASCENT WITHIN LEFT-FRONT-QUADRANT OF
> INTENSE MID/UPR JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWERING STATIC
> STABILITY AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH
> SATURATION IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. A RESULTING PLUME OF
> MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
> AHEAD OF SURGING COLD FRONT FROM WRN KY/TN TO MIDDLE TN/KY BORDER
> AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ROOTED IN
> THE 850-700MB LAYER ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEPNESS OF MID
> LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING
> LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CLUSTERS OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
> PERSISTENT TSTMS WITH OCCASIONALLY BETTER ORGANIZED/ROTATING
> UPDRAFTS. MARGINAL CAPE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND
> STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING TO AID SOME HAIL PRODUCTION WITH A FEW
> OF THE STRONGER CORES. CURRENT SPC HAIL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
> LITTLE CHANCE EXISTS FOR HAIL SIZES LARGER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
> AND...GIVEN DECOUPLED/ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...A WATCH
> WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
>
> ..CARBIN/HART.. 03/24/2013
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
>
> LAT...LON 35768804 36498822 37728803 38208754 37718611 36868554
> 36378552 35708611 35428715 35768804
>
> Read more
>
>
>
> To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber
> Preferences Page with your e-mail address.
>
> Delete profile
>
> For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact
> support@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.
>
>
> The use of the logo does not imply an endorsement by the NOAA/NWS
>
> GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. ·
> 1-800-439-1420
Other related posts:
