[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update

  • From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 21 Sep 2012 16:11:51 -0400

Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx



Begin forwarded message:

> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: September 21, 2012 2:42:57 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> 
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather 
> Service.
> 
> 
> SPC MD 1978
> 09/21/2012 02:37 PM EDT
> 
> MD 1978 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CNTRL IL...WCNTRL 
> IND 
> 
> 
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
> 
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WCNTRL IND
> 
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
> 
> VALID 211836Z - 212000Z
> 
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
> 
> SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
> CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND
> DAMAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
> COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
> NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD.
> 
> DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING AND INCREASING
> IN INTENSITY JUST TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER
> NE MO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND ON
> THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
> NORTHWEST. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS
> CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPITE OF THE
> WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT SPRINGFIELD IL
> CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
> WITH HEIGHT FROM 2 TO 3 KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT AS
> LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD INTO THE MCD AREA AND INSTABILITY
> INCREASES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 C TO -19C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
> ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN
> ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS ECNTRL
> IL INTO WRN IND AS SHOWN ON MESOSANALYSIS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
> NOW AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AT
> LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE LATE
> THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
> ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ROTATE AND PERSIST.
> 
> ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/21/2012
> 
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
> 
> ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
> 
> LAT...LON   40548702 41378876 41728987 41669052 41169094 40539089
>             39348998 38558854 38778681 40548702 
> 
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