[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 6 Sep 2012 12:09:25 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: September 6, 2012 11:57:31 AM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1899
> 09/06/2012 11:52 AM EDT
>
> MD 1899 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR SRN MO...FAR NRN AR
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1052 AM CDT THU SEP 06 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...FAR NRN AR
>
> CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
>
> VALID 061552Z - 061715Z
>
> SUMMARY...SMALL TSTM CLUSTER NEAR KS/MO BORDER MAY GROW UPSCALE AS
> IT PROGRESSES INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS AREA WILL
> BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK AND IS BEING
> MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.
>
> DISCUSSION...SMALL TSTM CLUSTER CENTERED OVER BOURBON COUNTY KS MAY
> INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
> WARMS THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE 90S AMIDST PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5
> INCHES. THIS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
> LIKELY INCREASING TO NEAR 2500 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF A
> WEAK CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/OK/MO BORDER AND REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY
> FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS SRN MO MAY FOSTER CONGLOMERATING UPDRAFTS
> AND YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH...PER RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE. WEAK ELY
> COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BE
> SUFFICIENT FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
> ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
>
> ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
>
> LAT...LON 38109411 38379228 38409135 38259042 38119004 37468972
> 36868977 36508998 36159047 36109155 36159361 36289445
> 36839486 37649476 38109411
>
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