[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 1 Sep 2012 14:13:49 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: September 1, 2012 1:46:34 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 1849
> 09/01/2012 01:42 PM EDT
>
> MD 1849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR IL
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...IL
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 011741Z - 011845Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER
> DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IL YIELDING AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED
> TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
>
> DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAAC ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY
> EWD ACROSS MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM...PARTIAL BREAKS IN
> CLOUD COVER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
> WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS IL. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
> RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASE IN SMALL DISCRETE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
> DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL IL WITHIN FAVORABLY MOIST BUT
> MARGINALLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TORNADOES HAVE
> BEEN NOTED WITH THESE SMALL SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL SHORT-LIVED WEAK
> TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.
>
> ADDITIONALLY...A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
> IN INTENSITY ACROSS WCNTRL IL AND THIS APPEARS LOOSELY CORRELATED
> WITH A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE MID LEVEL VORT LOBE.
> ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING HAS YET TO BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADDITIONAL
> HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. LOCALLY
> DAMAGING WINDS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE ALONG
> WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
>
> ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 09/01/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
>
> LAT...LON 41178890 41169004 40459066 39709026 38948985 37618961
> 37918817 40188786 41178890
>
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