[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 4 May 2012 22:07:45 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: May 4, 2012 9:06:32 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 703
> 05/04/2012 08:58 PM EDT
>
> MD 0703 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SRN IL...SWRN
> IND...NWRN KY AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MO
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0703
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0757 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SWRN IND...NWRN KY AND PARTS OF EAST
> CENTRAL MO
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 050057Z - 050200Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...PARTS OF SRN IL...INTO SWRN IND...NWRN KY AND POSSIBLY
> EAST CENTRAL MO MAY NEED A WW ISSUANCE THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST
> NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER SRN IL INTO SWRN IND/NWRN KY
> AND NWWD TO POTENTIALLY EAST CENTRAL MO. IF THESE TRENDS ARE
> CONFIRMED BY RADAR TRENDS...THEN A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED.
>
> DISCUSSION...A STORM WITH A ROBUST UPDRAFT FORMED OVER WAYNE COUNTY
> IL WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NWD TO EFFINGHAM COUNTY IL.
> THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED WITHIN AN INCREASING WAA REGIME IN THE NOSE
> OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
> VALLEY...AND INVOF A SE-NW ORIENTED BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM FAR
> SWRN IND THROUGH WAYNE COUNTY IL TO WEST CENTRAL IL. A RESIDUAL
> MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C
> PER KM/ COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT PER A 40-50
> KT NWLY MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM SRN IL TO WRN/SRN KY IS
> SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
> GUSTS. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE WAA AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION
> OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
> BE POSSIBLE AS THE LLJ IS MAINTAINED INTO THE SRN IL REGION THROUGH
> THE EVENING.
>
> MOST OF THE 15Z SREF MEMBERS AND THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC
> MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY INVOF THE CURRENT STORMS
> AND BOTH SEWD AND NWWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING
> INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO TRACK
> SEWD.
>
> ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 05/05/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
>
> LAT...LON 39048760 38518653 37658698 37498789 38479030 39339079
> 39938992 39048760
>
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