[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 2 May 2012 15:59:24 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: May 2, 2012 3:51:32 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 662
> 05/02/2012 03:47 PM EDT
>
> MD 0662 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL IL TO
> CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OH
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0246 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OH
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
>
> VALID 021946Z - 022145Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
> THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO
> CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY OH...WITH HAIL/WIND
> POSSIBLE. WHILE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH DOES NOT SEEM
> LIKELY/IMMINENT...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
> FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
>
> DISCUSSION...CONGESTED/DEEPENING CU FIELD AND A FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED
> AS OF 1930Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL
> INDIANA...ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS
> DEVELOPMENT COINCIDES WITH A DECELERATING/INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
> OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT INTERCEPTS A WARM/MOIST AND WEAKLY
> CAPPED/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID
> LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LATEST SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF
> MLCAPE OF 2000-2750 J/KG ACROSS A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM DOWNSTATE
> IL/INDIANA INTO MUCH OF OH. THIS CORRIDOR IS ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN
> PERIPHERY OF MODERATELY STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID
> TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /BENEATH WEAK HIGH LEVEL WINDS/...WHICH WILL BE
> CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SUSTAINED/POTENTIALLY OUTFLOW DOMINATED
> MULTICELLS. WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR THIS
> AFTERNOON...AT LEAST MARGINAL/EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE
> POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE/SLOWLY RISING
> HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD TEMPER THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE THREAT.
>
> ..GUYER.. 05/02/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...ILX...
>
> LAT...LON 39558893 40128647 40798359 39878337 38948627 38878865
> 39558893
>
> Read more
> SPC MD 661
> 05/02/2012 03:44 PM EDT
>
> MD 0661 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SRN MS AND
> AL
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0243 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN MS AND AL
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
>
> VALID 021943Z - 022045Z
>
> PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
>
> SUMMARY...ENHANCED THREAT OF A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WITH HEAVY
> RAINFALL. ANTICIPATED BREVITY AND ISOLATION OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS
> EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.
>
> DISCUSSION...LATEST MOB RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A EWD PROPAGATING
> THUNDERSTORM JUST N OF MOB WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. WINDS
> ON THE MOB SURFACE OBS ARE DUE E WITH SLIGHT VERTICAL VEERING
> INDICATED ON MOB VAD. AS A RESULT...VERY LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF
> SRH VALUES IS PROBABLE ALONG A LINE FROM 25 N OF GPT TO MOB AND
> SLIGHTLY FARTHER E. CONSEQUENTLY...A VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED WEAK
> TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST
> IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
>
> ..MOSIER/CARBIN.. 05/02/2012
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
>
> LAT...LON 31118836 31148786 31038741 30828718 30648725 30458758
> 30388800 30408848 30558913 30848916 30978903 31078852
> 31118836
>
> Read more
> SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
> 05/02/2012 01:03 PM EDT
>
> Public Severe Weather Outlook
> PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 1202 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
>
> ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
> THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
>
> THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
> DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF
> THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
>
> THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
>
> WESTERN IOWA
> SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
> CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
> SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
>
> ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN A SWATH FROM THE
> UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MI AND NRN OH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS
> VA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
>
> SEVERAL COMPLEXES OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
> DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
> THESE AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE
> IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE SPREADING EAST THROUGH
> THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
> OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO THE
> POSSIBILITY OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
>
> STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
> VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
> REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
> RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
> WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
>
> ..CARBIN.. 05/02/2012
> Read more
>
>
>
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