[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
- From: Keith Reedy <keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: spotters-illianaskywarn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 24 Aug 2011 18:01:24 -0400
Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
Begin forwarded message:
> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: August 24, 2011 4:52:41 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather
> Service.
>
>
> SPC MD 2048
> 08/24/2011 04:47 PM EDT
>
> MD 2048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL AND NERN
> IL...NRN IN...SRN MI...NWRN OH
>
>
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0346 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011
>
> AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN IL...NRN IN...SRN MI...NWRN OH
>
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
>
> VALID 242046Z - 242215Z
>
> AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
> EVENING FROM CNTRL IL NEWD INTO SERN MI. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF
> DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WW
> BETWEEN 22-00Z.
>
> AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
> CURRENTLY DIVING SEWD ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL...AND WILL OVERSPREAD
> A SFC COLD FRONT /ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM 15 NW GRR TO 30 SW RFD TO 25
> SW BRL/ WITH INCREASING COUPLED FORCED ASCENT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
> CONVECTIVE INITIATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CU
> FORMING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IL AND NWRN
> IN...BUT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG
> THE COLD FRONT. THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY
> UNSTABLE /MLCAPE VALUES 4000-4500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY INHIBITED WITH
> RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND SHOULD SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE
> UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE
> WILL LIKELY FAVOR DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES INITIALLY...WITH SOME
> SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...BUT
> ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE /GIVEN SIGNIFICANT PARALLEL COMPONENT
> OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTOR TO THE COLD FRONT/ AND EVOLVE INTO A
> PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND
> PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
> FOR ISSUANCE OF A WW.
>
> ..ROGERS.. 08/24/2011
>
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
>
> ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
> LSX...DVN...
>
> LAT...LON 41498287 41008376 40468496 39868646 39628767 39458916
> 39709047 40129063 40609028 41618750 42188609 43058349
> 42848285 42478254 41498287
>
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