[spotters-illianaskywarn] Fwd: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update

Keith Reedy
keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx



Begin forwarded message:

> From: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: NOAA's National Weather Service SPC Mesoscale Discussion Update
> Date: July 29, 2011 5:00:32 PM EDT
> To: keithreedy@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Reply-To: National Weather Service <nws.noaa@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> 
> You are subscribed to SPC Mesoscale Discussion for NOAA's National Weather 
> Service.
> 
> 
> SPC MD 1787
> 07/29/2011 04:52 PM EDT
> 
> MD 1787 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL 
> IND...W-CNTRL OH 
> 
> 
> MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
> NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
> 0351 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011
> 
> AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND...W-CNTRL OH
> 
> CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
> 
> VALID 292051Z - 292215Z
> 
> THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
> THE AFTERNOON. SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT
> AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
> 
> SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 20Z SHOW A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL OH
> WWD INTO CNTRL IL. VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDES ALONG AND
> S OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD MODERATE TO VERY
> UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 3000 J PER
> KG/. UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE ATTM...BUT
> COMBINATION OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
> IS AIDING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE IL/IND
> BORDER. LATEST 18Z HRRR SUGGESTS STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS
> INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
> INSTABILITY AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR
> PROFILES...ORGANIZED MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...POSING
> A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
> 
> ..GARNER.. 07/29/2011
> 
> ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
> 
> ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...ILX...
> 
> LAT...LON   40268804 40478698 40498461 39838374 39238489 38968762
>             39538900 40268804 
> 
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