[rollei_list] Re: The Future of Film

Recently, you wrote:

> From: Marc James Small <msmall@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> Kodak is getting out of the B&W paper business;  the ending of its
> B&W film and chemistry offerings is only a matter of time.
>
Undoubtedly, but whether that "matter of time" can be measured in years or
centuries is undetermined. It doesn't follow that because Kodak could not
make sufficient profits to sustain its paper manufacturing business, the
film production business is equally unprofitable.

> Many have commented on the reality that other companies will continue
> to fill this market, perhaps for the long haul.
>
I'd bet on it. The problem that Kodak faces is that it is too large to
service niche markets of any kind. That is not a universal problem
throughout the industry, and should be good news for Ilford, Agfa film (if
they can recover fast enough), and others.

> Within five years, only those living in a megalopolis will enjoy the
> existence of a local store stocking any analog film materials.  For
> the rest of us, it will be suppliers from some large city, ordered over
> the Internet and delivered by mail.
>
All brick and mortar stores have been negatively affected by internet and
catalog sales. This trend will only continue as more people become
comfortable with internet purchasing and eat the margins necessary to
support a sales structure associated with retail outlets. Photographers
are particularly price-sensitive purchasers, and won't pay 2x the amount
for their brick of film or digital products than they can get it through
catalogs or on the internet. So, the products are likely to remain
available, but the trend of purchasing by walking into a camera store is
likely to continue its decline. So, even in the megalopolis, it may not be
possible to purchase professional products from a walk-in store, because
the cost and overhead of the real estate may not support it.

> I miss the days when I could get a large variety of developers and
> chemicals and films and papers at a photo store two blocks from my
> office. Now, it is all digital, and as Kodak recedes from the analog
market,
> so shall they.
>
That is mainly up to the consumer, and isn't really a digital vs. film
issue. As above, the products that are purchased will likely remain
available, though their distribution channels are changing.

Neil

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