[rollei_list] Re: OT: Slide Film and E6
----- Original Message ----- From: "Eric Goldstein" <egoldste@xxxxxxxxx> 
To: <rollei_list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, December 24, 2007 7:52 AM
Subject: [rollei_list] Re: OT: Slide Film and E6
Last projections I saw about a year ago was that traditional film was roughly a billion dollar global market which is expected to decline at about 30% per annum. The decline will of course level out at some point; when and at what point requires a crystal ball to project. But this will make traditional film a viable market for private companies 
for a very long time to come...


Eric Goldstein

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I wonder how long this was predicted to continue. The decline in film sales was quite rapid but I suspect the leveling out point may already have been reached. Since all these predictions are for a situation which is nearly unique it seems to me that the usual statistical predictions are of limited value. While the comparisons to the transition in electronics from tubes to transistors, or from steam to deisel-electric locomotives is tempting the current situation is not quite analagous. The first took more than twenty years and tubes are still being made. The second was very rapid for IMO three factors: it was overdue by twenty years, the economic advantages of D-E locomotives could not be fully relalized if steam was still being supported, and one part of the impetus for changing over was the increasing public demand for cleaning up the polution caused by (especially coal burning) steam power. While the change was not instant the bulk of steam was gone within about five years and all in about ten. 

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Richard Knoppow
Los Angeles, CA, USA
dickburk@xxxxxxxxxxxxx


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