[ppi] [ppiindia] Polls to change face of Asia

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Polls to change face of Asia

By RALPH COSSA

HONOLULU -- Winston Churchill once said "democracy is the worst form of 
government, except for all the others that have been tried." Recent elections 
in South Korea and Taiwan have already demonstrated that irony. This year 
contains a number of presidential and parliamentary elections that promise to 
change the political face of Asia. 
Taiwan: a too-close shave. The March 20 Taiwan election looked more like an 
Oliver Stone movie, complete with an assassination attempt, an unusually high 
number of invalid ballots and a margin of victory of less than one-quarter of 1 
percent, prompting calls for a recount, scheduled for May 10. Odds are high 
that the end result will be the same: President Chen Shui-bian is expected to 
begin a second four-year term on May 20. 

While Chen's margin of victory was minuscule, the campaign still sent a strong 
message to Beijing. The (falsely labeled) "pro-China" candidate, Lien Chen, 
took great pains to distance himself from Beijing's "one China" concept, even 
playing down his own earlier "one China, different interpretations" 
formulation. Taiwanese "identity" issues are a growing phenomenon that Beijing 
must recognize and deal with effectively if there is to be any future progress 
in cross-Strait relations. 

All eyes will now be on Chen's May 20 swearing-in ceremony to see his approach 
toward Beijing. Chen has already pledged to support the "status quo," although 
Chen's definition of the status quo clearly differs from Beijing's, ensuring a 
tough four years ahead unless Beijing decides on a more cooperative approach. 
Recall it was concern that Chen might "make decisions unilaterally that change 
the status quo, which we oppose" that lead to U.S. President George W. Bush's 
open criticism of Chen in December. 

Malaysia: Secularism wins big. Largely overshadowed by events in Taiwan were 
the March 21 Malaysian elections that provided a sweeping mandate for Prime 
Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. His Barisan National (BN) Party, won 90 percent 
of the seats in Parliament and retained control over 12 of Malaysia's 13 state 
assemblies, dealing a crushing blow to the fundamentalist Islamic opposition 
party, PAS. The prime minister has surprised and delighted advocates of reform 
with his crackdown on corruption since replacing the mercurial Mahathir last 
October. His deeply felt but moderate religious views are in stark contrast to 
the increasingly confrontational PAS. The BN victory firmly establishes the 
more secular model of governance instituted by Mahathir, something Washington 
is sure to appreciate. 

Indonesia: democracy coming of age? The parliamentary elections in Indonesia 
earlier this month have set the stage for Indonesia's first direct presidential 
elections in July. While 90 percent of the country is nominally Islamic, 
religious political parties have never dominated national politics. The main 
battle this year is again between secular-nationalist parties, with President 
Megawati Sukarnoputri of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle 
(PDIP); Gen. Wiranto, the surprise winner of the Golkar nomination; and former 
Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (the early favorite) as the most serious 
contenders. 

Wiranto's election would be particularly challenging, given that he is 
currently under indictment for "crimes against humanity" over atrocities 
committed in East Timor during his tenure as chief of the armed forces. The 
United States has wisely announced that "we can work with anybody that comes 
out of a free [election] process." 

South Korea: a new era dawns. The stunning victory of the upstart Uri Party in 
the April 15 National Assembly elections changes the political landscape in 
South Korea and increases the prospects that last month's impeachment of 
President Roh Moo Hyun will be overturned. While inconceivable at the beginning 
of the year, Uri has now become the majority party, giving Roh the foundation 
he has thus far lacked to pursue his political agenda -- assuming, as almost 
everyone does, that the impeachment charges do not stand. 

The implications of all this for South Korea-U.S. and South-North relations are 
less than clear, but most Uri Party members are considerably more sympathetic 
and tolerant of North Korea than they appear to be toward Washington. Without 
the checks and balances provided by a more conservative National Assembly, it 
is difficult to predict in which direction Roh will choose to take either 
relationship. 

Philippines: star power. Filipinos go to the polls on May 10 to select their 
next president in a neck-and-neck race between the unelected incumbent, 
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo -- the former vice president who assumed 
office after then-President Joseph Estrada was removed following "people power" 
demonstrations in 2001 -- and Fernando Poe, a popular movie actor with no 
political experience. 

While former economics professor Arroyo has not distinguished herself in the 
management of the Philippines' rapidly sinking economy, turning things over to 
a complete political novice can only make things worse. Meanwhile, Arroyo has 
named her coalition after a Taiwan boy band and has a TV personality running as 
her vice president, prompting one business leader to lament: "We have 
politicians who want to be celebrities and celebrities who want to be 
politicians, and neither are doing a good job in what they profess they want to 
be." 

Japan: Iraq Redux? Finally, many are depicting the Upper House elections in 
Japan in July as a vote of confidence on Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's 
controversial decision to deploy the Self-Defense Forces to Iraq. Public 
opinion, initially running strongly against Koizumi's decision, now seems more 
equally divided, but there is concern that this upward trend could be reversed 
if the troops sustain significant casualties. Spain's reaction to the March 11 
terrorist attack against the nation's rail system has raised concern that 
terrorist groups might attempt to make a similar "statement" in Japan just 
prior to the elections. 

Bush has stated it is U.S. policy to promote democracy everywhere. This brings 
to mind yet another old saying: "Be careful what you wish for, because you 
might get it." 

Ralph A. Cossa is president of the Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based 
nonprofit research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and 
International Studies in Washington. 

The Japan Times: April 28, 2004
(C) All rights reserved 


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