[ppi] [ppiindia] Observation: Will Washington go to war with Iran?

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http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200501/25/eng20050125_171802.html

 Observation: Will Washington go to war with Iran?        =
=20

The sudden tension between US and Iran has again drawn world's attention re=
cently -- will Iran become the next target of Washington?=20

The news came out as New Yorker carried an article in its latest issue in w=
hich the author, a Pulitzer Prize winner, revealed that the Pentagon had se=
nt a special force to Iran for collecting intelligence and locating the whe=
reabouts of the potential nuclear sites. Then UK-based The Guardian run a r=
eport saying Pentagon hardliners were preparing to destroy Tehran's "nuclea=
r threats". The US and Europe media hype reminds people of the public opini=
on preparation on the eve of the Iraqi war.=20

Despite of that, a cool-headed analysis shows a rather slim chance of US at=
tack on Iran. Firstly, the United States is still mired in Iraq, with its d=
eath toll (which already reached 1,570) increasing every day. Domestic anti=
-war cries have been surging as if apparently Pentagon would not be allowed=
 to launch another war with a waster of both money and manpower.=20

Second, Iran not only possesses a terrain more sophisticated than Iraq, but=
 also is as four times as Iraq in size and population. Its political situat=
ion is fairly stable and its national strength, combat capability and cohes=
ion among people are all far unmatched if compared with Iraq. All these wei=
gh heavily on American mind.=20

Third, once going to war with Iran, the US will see no allies following exc=
ept Israel, and even Britain will not. Considering its large number of cont=
acts signed with Iran, Russian will certainly oppose.=20

Iran also boasts a better strategic position than Iraq. In case of war outb=
reak, it will seal off the Strait of Hormuz at any cost. It is from this st=
rait that 40 percent of Gulf crude oil goes to every corner of the world, s=
o once supply is blocked the impact on oil markets and global economy will =
be fatal. Considering this, even countries supporting the Iraqi war such as=
 Japan and the ROK will not be in favor of a war on Iran.=20

The European Union has still more reasons to adhere to "diplomatic approach=
". It leaves the impression that it has been playing a double-role play wit=
h the United States =A1=AA the former offers the carrot while the latter ho=
lds up the stick. Such a tacit agreement between the two cannot be ruled ou=
t. But on the other hand, trying to insure its trade and oil interests with=
 Iran, EU is certainly unwilling to see a war on Iran.=20

People have noticed that the Pentagon denied New Yorker's report but didn't=
 make a comment on The Guardian article. US Vice President Dick Cheney made=
 it clear on the very day of his inauguration that the United State will co=
ntinue to seek diplomatic means for the Iranian nuclear issue; but he added=
 that Iran tops the Administration's list of "potentially troubled regions"=
. Bush once also made remarks that diplomatic approach is the first to be c=
onsidered but other choices are also possible.=20

According to experts' assessment, it's still several years before Iran come=
s into possession of nuclear weapons, which leaves time for mediation and e=
xplaining Washington's patience. Of course, no military attacks at present =
doesn't mean no plans or preparations, and the possibility of US target bom=
bing on Iranian nuclear facilities can never be ruled out. Iranian Presiden=
t Mohammad Khatami, on the one hand, warned the United States seriously, bu=
t on the other hand believed a war is of low possibility since Washington i=
s weighed down by various considerations. It seems that the US is launching=
 a psychological war to press obedience out of Iran through pressure and th=
reats.=20

This article is carried on the first page of the People's Daily (Overseas E=
dition), January 24 and translated by People's Daily Online=20


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