[ppi] [ppiindia] Can Russia Be a Great Power?

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Moscow Times
Monday, Jan. 26, 2004. Page 8

Can Russia Be a Great Power?
By Mark Katz To Our Readers

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Despite all of Russia's current problems, many Russian officials and
commentators express enormous confidence that their country will once again
be a great power. Bolstering this confidence is the observation that since
the country has previously been able to survive periods of extreme weakness
and (like the proverbial phoenix) risen from the ashes to become stronger
than before, it can -- and will -- do so again now. But there is strong
reason to doubt the country's ability to pull this feat off.
Three of the most striking occasions when the country appeared to be on the
verge of collapse, but then went on to reassert itself as a great power,
occurred during the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and World War II. In each
of these cases, Russia benefited from the facts that the principal opponent
(France in the first case, Germany in the second two) had overextended
itself, and that there were many other nations working to defeat it.
Many Russians who see the United States as Moscow's principal opponent now
draw an analogy between these previous events and the present. While Russia
was greatly weakened by the collapse both of communism and the Soviet Union,
the United States is now overextending itself in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Further, Russians see that many other countries are working to end "American
hegemony."
This analogy, however, is a false one. To begin with, it is not at all clear
that the United States is overextending itself. The Bush administration's
military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq are hardly the equivalent to
Napoleon's, Kaiser Wilhelm's and Hitler's attempts to conquer all Europe and
more.
But even if the United States is overextending itself and ends up
withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq as well as retreating from the role of
sole superpower, it is not at all clear that this will benefit Russia.
Russia's previous transformations from near-collapse to resurrection as a
great power were greatly facilitated by its neighbors in Europe, the Muslim
world and China all simultaneously being weak as a result of war or some
other factor.
This is certainly not the case now. Europe is strong and united. China is
also strong, and getting stronger. And while the Muslim world may not be
strong, it is certainly reasserting itself. Even if U.S. power does decline,
opportunities for Russia to assert its influence in Europe, China or even
the Muslim world simply will not be present, as they were in the past.
Many Russians, though, are focused on reasserting Moscow's influence in the
non-Russian republics of the former Soviet Union. They bitterly resent the
unprecedented U.S. military presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. An
American withdrawal from these regions, however, would not benefit Russia.
Moscow's failure to defeat the Chechen rebels after many years of trying
suggests that it would also be unable to contain resurgent Islamic
fundamentalism in the Caucasus and Central Asia by itself. Indeed, it is not
clear that this could be done even with a U.S. presence there.
Similarly, Russia by itself could hardly hope to contain growing Chinese
power in the Far East. And given the likely continuation of European
distaste for intervention or confrontation, it is doubtful that Russia can
count on its new allies there for much support vis-?-vis a resurgent China,
the Muslim threat from the south or both.
Instead of resulting in Russia once again becoming a great power, a decline
in American willingness or ability to act as a superpower will only result
in Russia becoming even weaker. For if the United States can't or won't help
Russia against the most likely threats Moscow faces, it is doubtful that
Europe or anybody else will be willing or able to do so, either. The choice
Russia now faces is either to be a junior partner of the United States, or a
weak, isolated power facing threats it cannot deal with on its own. The
Russian phoenix won't rise again this time.

Mark Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason
University in Fairfax, Virginia. He contributed this comment to The Moscow
Times.





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