Re: Re: Oracle 911 Article

On 03/07/2004 02:26:25 AM, Nuno Souto wrote:

> "If"?
> Wanna bet it will last for the next 10 years at least?

Yes, I'm willing to take that bet. Another 10 years of this would 
strain the social fabric of all developed countries to the breaking point,
with quite unpredictable results, which is something that politicians in
the west will not tolerate. I don't think that this situation 
will last that long. What will happen is that the world will slow
down on globalization a bit, because the globalization has devastated
the traditionally rich markets of western Europe and the US without
providing the adequate replacement. I doubt that Chinese market or
Indian market will swallow as many iPods or DVD burners as the US
or EU market would have, had the situation been different. The same
applies to the very wide variety of products, from Honda Accords to
Versace suits and Dom Perignon. The rapid devastation of those markets 
will slow down the globalization and bring back an unstable prosperity 
period, the duration of which will depend on how quickly can we replace
oil as the basic fuel of our civilization. This has gone a little bit 
OT, but I believe that we're bound forrecovery in 2006. at the latest. I 
believe that the political pressure caused by the outsourcing will lead to 
major tax incentives for bringing large part of IT jobs back to US and Europe. 
In other words, companies that did outsource will at best no longer be able to 
do business with the government (something like that has already passed in 
congress) and may even be skinned alive by your friendly neigborhood IRS.
So yes, I do believe that this crisis is not going to last very long.
The one that will come after the next period of prosperity will.

-- 
Mladen Gogala
Oracle DBA
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