[opendtv] Re: Which Modulation Would You Choose on a really bad day?

At 7:07 PM -0400 9/24/06, Manfredi, Albert E wrote: 
I expect you want to hear that if 8-VSB fails on 18 Feb 2009, then in a
heroic 11th hour move, we'll go to COFDM. Instead, if 8-VSB "fails" and
we "go to COFDM," you can bet a bundle that COFDM will "fail" also. If
for no other reason, no one will want to make COFDM STBs to suit this
market.

I can't speak for Tom but I can make an intelligent guess about what will happen in 2009.

It is kind of interesting that the shut down date for NTSC will occur in the first month of a new administration in Washington D.C. I suspect, however, that the shut-off date will be postponed by Congress in 2008, as the deadline approaches.

It will be premature to talk of a change in the modulation system in 2009. It is more likely that the Congress critters will simply cave to pressure, giving NTSC yet another stay of execution while consumers are forced to buy new TVs with integrated ATSC tuners. There may be an investigation into the reasons that no company was willing to produce ATSC STBs for the government's subsidy program, perhaps even a few questions related to the performance of any boxes that are built. But, the next delay will likely be justified, simply to give consumers more time to upgrade.

Any change in modulation will only come after the FCC is dismantled and the marketplace is allowed to decide how to use the spectrum now occupied by broadcasters. The success of using broadband to deliver TV content is going to be a major factor. When this form of distribution reaches critical mass, the political environment will change.

Today the deal with broadcasters for the spectrum is still viewed as being important to the politicians. But this picture is changing.

The main reason for the use of ATSC as a delaying tactic has been to keep spectrum from being reallocated for new services. This has led to the artificially high prices paid for less desirable spectrum in government auctions. But the pressure is building on the politicians to monetize the broadcast spectrum.

I strongly suspect that the 700 MHz spectrum will be auctioned in the next few years to help the politicians reduce future deficits. When all of the spectrum that is not assigned to broadcasters is reallocated, there will be additional pressure to force broadcasters to pay for the use of the remaining spectrum.

When this happens, the arguments that have favored government regulation of TV and Radio will run smack into financial realities. Broadcasters cannot be competitive with unregulated competitors, especially with respect to content issues. If broadcasters are forced to start paying for the spectrum they use, they will be the ones who will push to change the rules. In essence, they will pay for the spectrum IF its use is unregulated. When this happens - eventually - then the companies that bid for the spectrum will have control of the modulation technology that is used, and ATSC will quickly go away.

Regards
Craig


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