[opendtv] Re: Sony U.S execs: Expect a robust holiday season

These were questions to Dale, but here are some answers
from an outsider to the industry.

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

>Please consider the following questions:

>1. What will happen to local broadcasters when Must
>Carry/Re-transmission consent are overturned?

It's possible that a restructuring would occur, but not
necessarily a bad thing for anyone. I see the content of
the major networks still being demanded, even if must-
carry is overturned.

>2. Will the media conglomerates continue to rely upon
>local  broadcasters to deliver their content if there is no
>economic or regulatory advantage in using local
>broadcasters as a distribution middleman?

Maybe not, but that's not a bad thing necessarily. Could
lead to more OTA options, for example, especially when
RF spectrum for new stations will become available (after
analog shutdown).

>3. Can a station survive economically based only on locally
>produced content and syndicated programming?
>(please assume that ALL stations in a market (other than
>Network O&O's) will become non-affiliated as the
>conglomerates eliminate affiliates).

*If* the national cap disappears, then local stations will likely
become either O&Os of the existing networks or new
entrants in the field. Some of the existing local news
crews would still be needed by the network-owned
stations, I would think. Much more like the Euro TV
model, which does work. But the major networks will
continue to have their local outlets, one way or another.

And it seems clear that the content of the major networks
will continue to be demanded from the umbillical service
providers, no matter what source they originate from.

>4. What would happen to the OTA TV service is
>ownership caps are eliminated?

See above. More like the Euro model. Some small
locally or regionally run stations would still exist. One
has to predict that OTA service would become more
"efficient," meaning providing the most service with
the least bodies.

>5. What will happen to local TV broadcasters when
>new competitors are able to acquire enough
>spectrum to offer competitive wireless TV and
>information services?

The major network O&Os will easily survive, as long as
these networks keep creating high quality content.
The new stations that emerge will sink or swim.

>6. What are existing TV broadcasters doing to prepare
>themselves for a world in which they are forced to
>compete in an open marketplace, against cable, DBS,
>Telco IPTV, Internet streaming and downloads, and
>wireless services optimized for mobile/portable receivers?

More options doesn't mean the existing service becomes
extinct. Not necessarily. You can still have steak, even if
you occasionally want sushi, so to speak.

Bert

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