[opendtv] Re: So Soon? Next-Gen Broadcast TV In Works | TVNewsCheck.com

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sun, 1 May 2011 08:44:45 -0400

At 6:07 PM -0400 4/30/11, Albert Manfredi wrote:

But once again, if every station transmitted one HD and 3 SD channels, you would not expect to see more than 25 percent of the ads in HD anyway. So your goal cannot be 100 percent, even in the best of circumstances.


Once again, Bert is completely missing the point.

The statistic has nothing to do with the percentage of ads that stations are running in HD. The 17% represents the percentage of stations that HAVE the capability to run an ad in HD.

They may pass through programs from a network that have HD ads, but the station cannot insert an HD ad, and cannot produce or deliver any programming in HD.

In short, they are not investing in the future. And these stations are not likely to invest in the ATSC MHP standard, especially when the ATSC is saying that their own standard is dated and needs to be replaced - possible the most accurate statement ever released by the ATSC...

;-)

Perhaps a little history lesson would be useful here.

When TV broadcasting started in the U.S. it was only in the VHF band and ONLY in larger markets. After the FCC authorized broadcasting in the UHF band the total number of stations began to grow, but UHF stations had a difficult time surviving financially because many in the audience could not receive these channels. The All Channel Receiver act helped to overcome this barrier, but most U.S. markets had only the major network affiliates, with a few independents in the largest markets.

What is more important is that it was difficult, even with a network affiliation, for a TV station in the smaller markets (above market 50) to operate profitably. TV equipment was VERY expensive, operating a UHF transmitter was very expensive, and ad revenues were barely sufficient for these stations to survive. The real turn around came in the '80s, when equipment costs started to drop dramatically, and the number of stations increased dramatically.

A case in point. When I was production manager of Channel 20, here in Gainesville in 1978, the station was losing money. By the mid '80s it was generating several million dollars in profit annually.

This trend started to reverse in the '90s as the range of options for viewing TV content continued to explode with new cable networks, DVD, and DBS. Equally important, the percentage of homes watching broadcast TV content started to decline at an accelerating rate.

What we are seeing today is nothing more than the normal end of life curve for a mature industry. The network affiliates in larger markets are still VERY profitable; independents in these markets are struggling. Network affiliates in mid sized markets are still profitable, but independents are mostly losing money. And affiliates in smaller markets are struggling - some are still profitable, but many are losing money, and independents are losing money.

In other words we are on the down side of what looks like a bell curve. Nothing unusual here - this is a classic view of the life of many industries.

The real question is who will hang onto spectrum, and where will the money come from to build out the next broadcast TV infrastructure.

Regards
Craig



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