[opendtv] Re: Selling Out

At 8:30 PM -0500 12/19/07, Don Moore wrote:
Broadcasters represent 4 to 10 choices for customers that have over 200 choices for video entertainment via satellite and/or cable. They are also competing against Video Games, DVD's the Internet and even books!
Perhaps more important they are now competing with the same content that they carry. Several people have mentioned that they rent DVDs that contain popular broadcast and cable shows; I'm especially pleased with Bert's confession that he rents shows that were only available via cable. And now the conglomerates are moving their content to the Internet, bypassing their affiliates altogether.
As the conglomerates move their shows to the Internet we are likely to see more and more homes dropping cable or DBS, as it will be easier to "subscribe" to your favorite shows. The shows will be delivered via IP multicasts to millions of subscribers who will watch them at different times on many devices. But more important, they will contain fewer, but more relevant ads, and it is likely that viewers will have the option to pay for versions of the shows that have no ads. In addition, there will be no content restrictions on the versions distributed via the Internet; the versions that are still broadcast will be cleaned up to meet FCC guidelines.
The good news here is that this could actually HELP broadcasters, as viewers might be more likely to use an antenna for live content if they rely on downloads for episodic programming. I doubt that this will extend to news, however, as the broadcasters are losing that battle to the Internet.
The Writers' Strike is all about the where the profits are split on all those other outlets.
In part. But the real intent is to break the back of the union. Note that all of the late night shows are coming back in January without Union writers ( or with side deals cut with the current writers). This is critical, as most of the networks are losing money; but the conglomerates make money on the back end distribution deals including DVD release, foreign distribution and now downloads.
The Analog Shutoff will damage the broadcasters relationship with cable and satellite as the average consumer is not going to put up an antenna for 10 channels when they can get 200 with a cable or dish.
Why would these relationships be damaged? Broadcasters love cable and DBS and want their viewers to subscribe to these services so that they can get in on the subscriber fee action via re-transmission consent. What is likely to happen is that cable and DBS will become more aggressive, offering the OTA laggards special deals to subscribe.
The smart play is to sell your outlets and invest in content generation, or as Mr. Pappas stated, take some time with your family and enjoy life.
Unfortunately, what we are witnessing is a classic case of taking an industry down, while milking it for every penny of profit possible. TV is a generational phenomenon. The baby boomers are running the industry today, and they have one goal: 

Keep it going until they retire.
Gotta give em credit, they have done an incredible job to date. The question is, will the next generation even care about broadcast TV, or cable and DBS for that matter? IMHO, the all you can watch buffets are going the way of those cheap pig-out buffet restaurants. People are now more interested in quality and service than quantity.
If a viewer can subscribe to their favorite pre-produced shows the only thing left will be live events. We see this already with all of the cheap, unscripted reality shows, and news magazines on the networks. Live sports content is still a major draw, but the leagues are beginning to understand that they too can go direct, cutting out the distribution middlemen; in the meantime, they will keep pushing up the cost of rights fees until it becomes unprofitable for the networks to distribute live sports.
What is really going to be interesting is to watch the business that grow in the recovered spectrum, and to see how technology is employed to improve "spectral efficiency." I expect that some of the new players will find ways to deliver more content in far less spectrum than the existing TV broadcasters, who will continue to protect their huge chunk so that they can collect those retransmission consent payments. 

Regards
Craig



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