[opendtv] Re: STB hunting

I also think it likely that many NTSC homes after the cutoff will 
purchase a new entry level integrated TV, and then watch only whichever 
channels happen to work with that TV and their existing antenna.

- Tom


Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> At 6:43 PM -0500 1/22/06, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
> 
>>First of all, the market for OTA boxes is roughly as big
>>as the market for DBS. About 20 percent of households.
>>And secondly, I am baffled by the traction negativism
>>seems to get. You weren't sounding quite so negative when
>>you first tried this little guy. Why the change of heart?
> 
> 
> Some bad assumptions here Bert.
> 
> First, the number of DBS subscribers in the U.S. is now in excess of 
> 27 million, or nearly 25% of all U.S. homes.
> 
> Second, it is simply illogical and wrong to assume that every U.S. 
> home that now receives NTSC broadcasts is a potential customer for an 
> ATSC receiver. Why?
> 
>   1. The number of U.S.  homes that still rely exclusively on the NTSC 
> service is unknown, or at least the numbers that are quoted from 
> different studies are conflicting. Your assumption is based on 20% of 
> U.S. homes using the service. This MAY be true, however, the number 
> is influenced by home that still have one or more TVs that can 
> receive NTSC broadcasts in addition to any multi-channel service to 
> which the home subscribes. Based on all of the available reports, one 
> would have to conclude that at least 5% of the 20% subscribe to a 
> multi-channel service today.
> 
>   2. People may still use an ATSC receiver on occasion, but it is 
> unlikely that they will invest in an ATSC receiver to keep an old set 
> working after the cut-off. I can't quantify this exactly, but it is 
> probably in the range of 15-30% of U.S. homes that now still use the 
> NTSC service on occasion.
> 
>   3. When (if?) a family actually faces the reality that they will no 
> longer be able to receive Free NTSC broadcasts, they will have 
> options, one of which is to buy an ATSC receiver. If and when this 
> day comes, you can bet your last dollar that the DBS and cable 
> companies will be putting together low cost packages to attract the 
> holdouts. Again, it is not possible to predict the exact percentages, 
> but it would be fair to say that a significant number of homes will 
> elect to switch to a multi-channel service, not ATSC.
> 
> 4. A sizable percent of the homes included in the NTSC only category 
> do not watch TV at all, or only on rare occasions - these homes will 
> not buy an ATSC STB.
> 
> 5. By the time the NTSC service is turned off, there will be other 
> competitive options, centered around new IPTV services and TV 
> programming delivered via the Internet. It is quite feasible that an 
> Intel powered media center will cost no more than an ATSC receiver by 
> the time this happens. More important, many of the homes that do not 
> subscribe to a multi-channel service are young, lower income 
> demographics who are growing up with the Internet, and will be more 
> likely to choose a solution that does not involve either OTA 
> broadcasts or subscription to a multi-channel service.
> 
> Bottom line, I do not see the market for ATSC STBs ever reaching 10% 
> of U.S. homes, and more likely it will be below 5%. Note that this 
> assumes no change in the U.S. broadcast business model.
> 
> Regards
> Craig
>  
>  
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