[opendtv] Re: Radio's metamorphosis

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Sun, 2 Dec 2007 19:56:41 -0500

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> Wireless Internet access will be ubiquitous at some point
> during the next decade - the broadcasters no longer have
> the political clout to sit on all the spectrum they have
> controlled.

Yes, if and when this happens, broadcast radio and TV nets, including
satellite radio, will have a tough time of it. What you are predicting
is that there will be enough spectrum available to offer point-to-point
Internet access to everyone ubiquitously, so that every user can set up
an individual unicast session anywhere and anytime, and get the specific
content he wants to see or hear.

But, you know, this is extremely demanding of OTA spectrum and of the
earth-bound component of routing networks. The wired part is happening
as we speak. The wireless is not so straightforward.

Check out WiFi and WiMAX, and you'll see low spectral efficiency
compared with OTA TV, most especially if mobile service is offered (e.g.
802.16e). Add unicast coverage, and that makes it even lower. The
answer, obviously, is tiny cells and a huge number of small towers.
Schemes like IP multicast might help, but on the other hand that returns
the user to a pre-scheduled content delivery model, and a predetermind
amount of choice. So it would detract from this utopian view of
ubiqitous Internet access.

So yes, it could happen, at a price. Alternatively, your prediction of
ubiquitous wireless Internet access within the next decade might not
include (H)DTV unicast delivery. That would be my bet.

> Terrestrial radio cannot provide a seamless footprint for
> content. You might be able to find NPR stations to listen to
> along the I-95 corridor in the N.E., but try driving though
> the rural south and midwest, or the wide open spaces of the
> west.

Yup. On the other hand, that's entirely up to the broadcasters
themselves. They can provide however much coverage they think makes
sense. And its ace in the hole is that it's free. Just like OTA TV.
That's the attraction to the audience.

> Localism is what broadcasting does best. And I'm not talking the
> content between the ads. The most important function of Radio
> and TV broadcasting is the ability to deliver advertising that
> is optimized for individual markets.

Perhaps. I think this idea is losing relevance, which is why cable TV
and DBS, and satellite radio, get all the media attention. As mom and
pop operations lose out to national franchises, local advertizing over
media outlets also loses importance. So my point is, if the FCC insists
on this quaint "localism" idea, they could actually help hasten the
demise of FOTA broadcasting. The market has to be allowed to find its
natural equilibrium.

Bert
 
 
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