[opendtv] Re: Radio's metamorphosis
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 07:23:24 -0500
At 7:56 PM -0500 12/2/07, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
Yes, if and when this happens, broadcast radio and TV nets, including
satellite radio, will have a tough time of it. What you are predicting
is that there will be enough spectrum available to offer point-to-point
Internet access to everyone ubiquitously, so that every user can set up
an individual unicast session anywhere and anytime, and get the specific
content he wants to see or hear.
Not exactly. I believe that IP multicast will be an important
component of this and that there will be many services that are
designed to continuously update caches in devices that are programmed
by their users to cache these services.
I can easily see many live events being streamed via IP multicasts.
This would work fine for both college and professional sporting
events. And remember, it will be much easier to download the content
you want to your home computer, then sync it with other devices that
enable portability/mobility.
Tom talked about the "bit pump" at gas stations, an idea that has
some merit, But what about putting Wi-Fi in the vehicle, making it
possible for the vehicle to sync up with your home network when it is
parked in the driveway. Planning a trip? Just fill up the cache in
the car with enough programming to keep people occupied during the
trip.
And remember, that you really do not need unicast streams to enable a
viable VOD service. The DBS guys have delivered millions of movies
using NVOD, where the access points are limited to once or twice per
hour. There is plenty of potential for IP multicast to deal with
network load management.
But, you know, this is extremely demanding of OTA spectrum and of the
earth-bound component of routing networks. The wired part is happening
as we speak. The wireless is not so straightforward.
Check out WiFi and WiMAX, and you'll see low spectral efficiency
compared with OTA TV, most especially if mobile service is offered (e.g.
802.16e). Add unicast coverage, and that makes it even lower. The
answer, obviously, is tiny cells and a huge number of small towers.
Schemes like IP multicast might help, but on the other hand that returns
the user to a pre-scheduled content delivery model, and a predetermind
amount of choice. So it would detract from this utopian view of
ubiqitous Internet access.
It remains to be seen how dense the networks will be in the recovered
700 MHz spectrum. Personally I doubt that they will be as dense as
existing cellular networks if the primary purpose is to push TV to
MPH receivers. Real 2-way data networks will need higher density to
improve spectral efficiency (re-use). But the good news with these
dense cells is that they will provide the bridge to the wired
networks that will do most of the heavy hauling.
So yes, it could happen, at a price. Alternatively, your prediction of
ubiquitous wireless Internet access within the next decade might not
include (H)DTV unicast delivery. That would be my bet.
It will be interesting to see how this works out. With WiFi it is now
possible to use unicast streams to view video content when you are
near a hot spot. YouTube is a good example - I can even access their
content via the slow AT&T Edge network. I seriously doubt that tfor
mobile applications HDTV will be an important requirement. Perhaps
this will give broadcasters an angle they can use to keep people
watching their DTV broadcasts,,,
Terrestrial radio cannot provide a seamless footprint for
content. You might be able to find NPR stations to listen to
along the I-95 corridor in the N.E., but try driving though
the rural south and midwest, or the wide open spaces of the
west.
Yup. On the other hand, that's entirely up to the broadcasters
themselves. They can provide however much coverage they think makes
sense. And its ace in the hole is that it's free. Just like OTA TV.
That's the attraction to the audience.
True. We have an FM music "station" in this region that simulcasts on
three frequencies covering an area that encompasses about 20
counties. But this is rare. There has been a huge increase in the
number of radio stations in this market in recent years - but most of
these stations are lower power, using automated programming systems
to keep operational costs very low. Radio has the luxury of being
able to serve small niche markets because of higher spectral
efficiency - that is, they can use the same frequency in many markets
when all of these stations operate at lower power levels.
Localism is what broadcasting does best. And I'm not talking the
content between the ads. The most important function of Radio
and TV broadcasting is the ability to deliver advertising that
is optimized for individual markets.
Perhaps. I think this idea is losing relevance, which is why cable TV
and DBS, and satellite radio, get all the media attention. As mom and
pop operations lose out to national franchises, local advertizing over
media outlets also loses importance. So my point is, if the FCC insists
on this quaint "localism" idea, they could actually help hasten the
demise of FOTA broadcasting. The market has to be allowed to find its
natural equilibrium.
The problem is that people now have MANY options to avoid those ads.
At the same time, the options are growing for people to get
information while they are mobile and shopping. I frequently use my
iPhone to find the location(s) of stores where I might find a product
I am looking for - this is ESPECIALLY true when I am in a nearby
larger city on a shopping trip.
Personally, I think that the new 700 Mhz networks will be used more
to enable local e-commerce, than to watch entertainment TV.
Regards
Craig
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