[opendtv] PR: Total HD Subs To Approach 94 Million By 2015
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: OpenDTV Mail List <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 24 Jan 2005 08:47:47 -0500
http://www.kagan.com/breakinganalysis.aspx?pageID=012105
DBS Carriers Battle For HD Market Share; Total HD Subs To Approach 94
Million By 2015
In the race for more subscribers, not only is DIRECTV poised to
maintain its lead over EchosStar in total subs but it appears as if
DIRECTV will dominate the HD space as well. DIRECTV is due to
activate four new satellites two this year and two more in 2007
offering enough to support 1.5K local HD channels and 150 more
national HD channels leaving EchosStar with little chance in
furthering its 40% share of HD Tier Subs (YE '04) to any level
greater than 50%. As for satellite consumers purchasing the HD
digital tier, Kagan expects DIRECTV to maintain its lead through
2014, although EchoStar continues its hard charge with its Jan. 20
announcement it has agreed to acquire the VOOM satellite assets from
Cablevision for $200 mil. The increased capacity may enable it to
offer local HD channels of its own.
For more about the HDTV market share battles, read these four stories
in Kagan's Digital Television, January 18 issue: "DIRECTV To Garner
Majority of Satellite HD Subscribers," "ESPN2 HD Debuts," "New
Strategies For DIRECTV And Echostar," and "HD Networks And License
Fees" featuring tables of exclusive Kagan Research estimates on
"DIRECTV, Dish HD Tier Subs, Projections 2003 - 2014," and "Estimated
DBS HD Set-Tops Deployed in 2004." For a comprehensive breakdown of
the sector's economic state read the new 315-page databook from
Kagan, The State of High Definition Television 2005, including 53
tables and charts.
Market share is there for the taking given the sizable gap between
the number of HD sets purchased and the number of recipients of
satellite and cable service electing to become HD subscribers. A just
completed study by Kagan Research has revealed that the number of
consumers buying High Definition (HD) television sets is rising at a
much faster pace than the number of consumers subscribing to HD
programs via their cable or satellite systems. Nevertheless, the
Kagan study found, the current proliferation of HD sets is setting
the stage for a programming boom that will approach 94 million total
subscribers and surpass an 88% penetration in the next 10 years.
According to the Kagan study, the number of satellite and cable
subscribers who own at least one HDTV set, have an HD set-top box and
are watching HD programming via an HD tier package or otherwise will
rise from 1.4 mil. in 2003 to nearly 94 mil. by 2015. With only 3.7
mil. current HD subscribers between satellite and cable and 10.4 HD
households, there is a gap of 6.7 mil. Why? Confusion among consumers
(i.e. they don't realize that they also need an HD STB to view HD
programming, etc.) may be one reason, their respective cable
operators do not as yet offer HD programming, or high digital-tier
subscription costs may be a factor as well.
Other key findings of the Kagan study include:
* Total Cable and Satellite HD Subscribers will surpass 88%
penetration by 2015.
* Cable subscribers make up a larger portion of the gap between the
number of HD sets and HD subscribers.
* DBS will outpace Cable not in the number of HD subs or CAGR, but in
the penetration level of total subscribers.
* Satellite and Cable have larger shares of the HD market than they
do of the basic multichannel market.
* Not all DBS and Cable HD households subscribe to HD tiers - what
percentages do?
* Satellite surpasses Cable in annual revenues from subscriptions to HD Tiers.
* What happens in 2010 when Satellite and Cable operators cease
charging incremental fees for HD tiers and begin to bundle the
programming within the cost of their programming packages.
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