[opendtv] Re: News: New Cable Fight at Hand
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2011 11:06:12 -0400
At 6:47 PM -0400 3/26/11, Albert Manfredi wrote:
If the media companies allow cable companies to transmit cable
content to subscribers via the Internet, encrypted specifically for
each subscripter's household, why do they feel that a particular IP
appliance is off limits? I don't understand the logic. Presumably,
laptop PCs are okay, but tablets are not?
It all boils down to greed. The content owners want to monetize
(separately) each use of the content. Nothing new here: I have paid
for some music at least three times as the technology transition from
LP to Cassette, to CD, to digital file download has played out.
The view from the content owners perspective is what one might expect
- they would like to live in a world where every person would pay for
every use of a "content product," and fill that content with paid
advertising as well.
It's not working out that way, but that's the underlying philosophy.
Distribution rights are granted for specific networks and devices.
Cable TV is intended for the legacy TVs in your home. If you want to
watch on a PC you can add a cable tuner. If you want to watch a
downloaded version from the Internet, you should pay again.
The consumer, and many technology companies like Apple and Netflix,
view the issue from the perspective that when you pay for content you
should be able to use it on any device. The cloud is really going to
muddy these waters, as once you pay for content and put it into your
"digital locker," you will expect to be able to use it on any device.
TYechnologies like Air Play further muddy the waters, as you can
carry the content with you and use it on other peoples devices.
Consumers are likely to side with the hated cable companies on this
one, as the ability to consume the content they deliver, on any
device you own, adds to the perceived value of an MVPD subscription.
In the end, it all boils down to: How much as consumer willing to
pay? and in turn, when will they fight back.
There's not much difference here between government and the media companies...
They keep taking more until we fight back. The potentially good news
is that consumers are beginning to fight back, but the entrenched
interests in government and their media partners are going to drag
their heels and give back begrudgingly, even as they seek to taker
more in other ways.
Bert has one thing right. Consumers are their own worst enemy,
failing to use their "market power" to JUST SAY NO when the demands
for more money get out of line with the value of what they are paying
for.
It will be interesting to see how much we care if the NFL does not
create content next season.
On another topic, Craig said:
One need only look at the recent CE industry disasters - Blu Ray and 3DTV
Is this true? Not so much BluRay, which I guess you're saying it
came at a time when people are using online streaming increasingly
for their movies. But the 3DTV part. I hadn't seen anyone else
pronounce themselves on this subject yet. And I am curious.
Blu Ray is a niche product. The industry hoped to duplicate what they
had accomplished with DVD - 95% market penetration. The reality:
http://www.homemediamagazine.com/blu-ray-disc/blu-ray-household-penetration-tops-17-20731
Blu-ray Household Penetration Tops 17%
29 Sep, 2010
By: Erik Gruenwedel
The number of U.S. households with at least one Blu-ray Disc player
has doubled since 2008, reaching 17% in July, according to a new
report.
Though less than one-in-five homes, the percentage exceeds the
domestic household penetration of Netflix, which is about 15%. DVD
household penetration exceeds 95%, still ranking as the top consumer
electronics product launch in history. Indeed, Apple-based computers,
at the end of 2009 and prior to the launch of the iPad, had 12%
household penetration, compared with 85% for Windows-based computers,
according to The NPD Group.
The article fails to mention that Apple's iPAD will pass the total
sales of Blu Ray in its first year on the market. Blu Ray may
eventually reach 25% of U.S. households, but I would not hold my
breath. And if you factor in the reality that a huge percentage of
Blu Ray drives are in game consoles...
As for 3DTV here;s an interesting take on the issue (and other issues).
http://displaydaily.com/2011/01/03/trends-to-watch-in-2011/
Bottom line, the legacy CE industry has not had a hit since HDTV, and
this market has already turned into a battle for minuscule profit
margins. More important, these companies have not figured out how to
build ecosystems - they are still focused on creating hardware
platforms.
It did seem obvious that 3D was a push that only the TV industry was
behind. But then again, some people (but certainly not moi) could
have said the same thing about HDTV a few years ago. And yet, HDTV
has become mainstream. So I'm not sure what the status of 3DTV is. I
keep seeing how this or that MVPD is now starting to offer 3D sports.
The two main proponents of 3D are Hollywood and the legacy CE vendors.
Hollywood is learning that this is not "easy money." Consumers are
balking at paying higher prices for 3D movies that are not worth the
experience. As one analyst put it, Avatar would have been a huge hit
WITHOUT 3D.
There were two major barriers to HDTV.
Affordable acquisition
Affordable displays
Once again, the legacy CE vendors tried to build HD standards around
legacy technologies, interlace and all. CRTs were NOT a viable
technology for HDTV. The industry took off when the technology to
build large flat panels became mainstream.
And on the acquisition side, the legacy video equipment vendors were
motivate by the notion that they could get back to the glory days
when content producers would pay millions of dollars for an edit
suite or a TV remote truck. They failed to understand that HD was
just a scalability issue for the new digital media industry. They
failed to see that high resolution digital still cameras would
compete with expensive HD video cameras and even smart phones as HD
acquisition devices.
You are going to keep seeing a lot of effort to get 3D into our
homes. But it will be another niche industry like Blu Ray. The
problem is attention span. You need to dedicate yourself to a 3D
experience. At the same time, however, we are becoming accustomed to
the reality that we can enjoy content anywhere, anytime (we have some
time), on easy to use mobile devices.
And then there is the most important reality. Technology need only be
GOOD ENOUGH for the application. I saw an LG ad built around people
in different settings using different devices to watch the end of
(presumably) an NCAA tournament basketball game. A guy on a train
using his smartphone; a group watching on an HDTV; someone watching
on a tablet...
I also like the AT&T mobile ad with two guys on a ski lift.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6Pll7Qm-k0
In the network sparks fly faster...
A good analogy for what's happening to the traditional CE and content
industries...
Regards
Craig
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