[opendtv] Re: Mobile TV: $2 Billion in Ad Buys
----- Original Message ----- From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> 



Actually, John, I believe you have mischaracterized my position.

I believe that Qualcomm will never make back trough operations the expense
they incurred in building out their demo network, for many of the reasons
that were outlined below: they have to buy the content at the top of the
market, etc.
Yes, I thoroughly enjoyed your missive titled "Boldest Dumb Idea I've Ever Seen." 


I've never said that mobile would never bring in one additional dime for
broadcasters. Indeed, I have said repeatedly here that broadcasters are the 
best suited to deploy mobile services, for many of the reasons outlined
below (plus branding, etc.)
Pardon me for exagerating your position to make a point. What you have said repeatidly is that a ubiquitous mobile TV service might bump cume 2-3%. Is that worth $2 Billon in additional ad buys? 


I've also said that I see a market for ubiquitous mobile/home broadcast
services, and one interesting niche being must-watch sporting events when
one cannot watch the live event at home.  And, we need to consider
'non-real-time" services.
NASCAR, F-2, and NFL are offering mobile devices you rent at the venue that provides in depth real time stats via Kangaroo TV. That sort of niche application is well and good, but I can't see a one way push of data from a broadcaster competing with a browser equipped Blackberry or iPhone for easy and fast data delivery. Heck, even Fox News offers local weather via browser enabled phones through foxnews.mobi
Indeed, my criticism of mobile in general was that people can't watch video 
services while driving.  Of course, real-time traffic updates to a
dash-board video screen IS PERMITTED, at least in most states.
The driver can't. But drive down the San Deigo freeway at night and count the number of fold down LCD screens in vans and SUVs. Look at the subscription video service being offered by Sirius Satellite Radio. XM Radio already offers real time traffic update to Garmin StreePilot GPS navigators. 


Another of my angles on mobile has been that you could use it to reach
additional "viewers", but at what expense of bandwidth? Indeed, I posted to 
OpenDTV a spreadsheet to play with potential audience sizes and bandwidth
costs more than 6 years ago.
Yes, and that's always been my argument against A-VSB and the other ATSC centric moblie solutions. The bandwidth tradeoff is too great. A different system such as COFDM can, has, and does work mobile, if imperfectly. You can already buy portable DVD players with built in DVB-T tuners and 6" LCD screens. A laptop equipped with a DVB-T USB tuner works fine in a mobile application. The loss of bandwidth to the broadcaster is close to nil. 


If the FCC had started a proceeding on the Sinclair petition in 2000, we
would still be a few years short of a report and order, due to the hardened positions at the time, the egos involved, and the bandwidth that the parties 
would devote to it.  I also need to mention that the Sinclair proposal was
one that largely only Sinclair was interested in pursuing, at least by the
end of 2000. Even if they had everything in place a few years ago, we would 
now be saddled with a technology that isn't used anywhere in the world for
mobile TV and which is not favored by broadcasters interested in deploying
mobile services.
Sinclair's proposal was shot down by others in the industry because they were interested in pursuing new business models directly related to mobile reception of a digital bitstream. Sinclair was lambasted for trying to become something "other than a broadcaster." 

As Doug Lung put it:
"Sinclair's petition did not focus solely on 8-VSB's deficiencies. It noted that COFDM gives broadcasters much more flexibility to provide a variety of fixed, mobile, and portable DTV video services. Using COFDM, broadcasters could vary data rates from 4 to 24 Mbps "to achieve a wide range of operational modes and meet a variety of service goals." "
In 2000, the importance of mobile was dismissed by an industry still focused on providing HDTV to 50" screens.
Sinclair is to be commended: they are 'intellectual author' of what might be some very cool services that will require phones (and other mobile devices) 
that should be in stores in 4q 2009.


They acheved their goals by other means.


I should also mention that, thanks to the indulgence of Mark Aitken, Mark
Richer and Jerry Whitaker, I am a member of ATSC's s4-0 and S4-2
subcommittees, where I am actively involved in aspects of the m/h process
that should lead to a published ATSC M/H standard by February 18 of 2009. I 
speak not for the ATSC or any subcommittee, nor can I speak much of the
work.  Heck, I've had to remove sentences as I write this to delete
information that I didn't acquire in the clear.
All I can say on that front, John, is don't let them repeat the AM Stereo debacle. Choose one system, not a range of solutions and leave it up to the marketplace to sort out. 


I can say that there are three basic proposals: MPH from LG/Harris, A-VSB
from Samsung/Rohde & Schwarz, and another one from Thomson/Micronas. And 'I 
think' that the selection of (a) viable system is up to the Open Mobile
Video Coalition (OMVC).
I've seen presentations of the first two, but not the Thomson proposal. Where is E-VSB?
$2 billion for multicasting over the last 9 years, I doubt it. CBS doesn't multicast, nor does Fox. NBC has for a few years, but their second channel 
is a very inexpensive buy.  In some markets, they also offer a NBC Newsraw
channel, which currently has more limited prospects.  ABC has only been
multicasting at their O&O's for a bit more than a year.
You're being network-centric. Local broadcasters offer multicasts, too. The ABC affiliate in my market has a CW subchannel. The NBC affiliate runs a 24 hour weather service. I was just asking if these multicasts have generated that much additional revenue, and if so would it be as much as a mobile TV service would generate? 


Of course, the question is an unfair one.  Multicasts aren't carried on
cable, and in many markets, digital transmissions are only now being folded 
into Nielsen numbers.  Without numbers, getting any money is difficult at
best.
Presumably, any new mobile service won't be carried on cable, either, so if it is predicted that mobile ATSC will provide $2 Billion in additional ad revenue, it is fair to ask if multicasting has provided anything close to that figure thus far. 






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