[opendtv] Re: Kagan: TV Ad Revs Less In 2013, Than 2006

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 9 Feb 2010 17:11:24 -0600

Dale Kelly wrote:

>> In 2009, SNL Kagan said TV station traditional ad revenues
>> sank 20% to $19 billion
>
> The 2009 revenue number is relative to what?
>
> As John Shut reminded us recently, 2009 was not an election year.
> IMO the only accurate way to compare TV revenues is in four year
> cycles, from one Presidential election to the next , which would
> average two election years and two non election years.
>
> Election years could possibly surpass other years by about 20%.
> And, now that the Supreme Court has turned the Wolves loose, it
> could even top that.

We also know that 2008 and 2009 were bad for adevertizing. So I don't see why 
these doomsdayers keep harping on this.

Unless there's something miswired in the brains of advertizers, it seems 
obvious that programs which consistently rank very high among the "100 most 
watched" in any given week should continue to get good advertizing revenues. 
And that content is now provided by the OTA broadcasters, either FOTA or on via 
MVPDs.

I am curious to see just how, or whether, OTA broadcasters really get their act 
together *as* OTA broadcasters. Tom doubts this. Going from the beginning of 
the digital transition to today, I think Tom can make a good case.

Bert
 
 
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