[opendtv] Huh?

Mark Shubin reported:

"Most media outlets report the results of a survey showing at 3/4 of 
respondents aren't interested in watching TV programs or movies on their mobile 
phones as indicating there's no business there.  If the surveys are true, the 
other quarter could represent a higher number of viewers than almost any movie 
or TV show:
<http://broadcastengineering.com/newsletters/news_tech/20060315/#>"


Somehow, that doesn't pass the smell test.  Sure, the number could represent 
higher numbers of viewers than almost any movie or tv show.  Similar studies 
"predicted" the success of the Edsel, CBS's EVR and the election of John Kerry 
in 2004.   Basically, people were either saying that other people would like 
the item, or weren't considering the alternatives.

So, discount that number by at least 50%, but I'd go at least 80%.  So, maybe 
the real number is about 5% say they're interested in mobile TV.  Before they 
consider the per-minute cost.

Then, consider the content alternatives.  What content is available or will be 
available and how long will the content run for?  Having a three minute show 
compete with a 30 minute one is a laugh.

Then, there are alternative uses of time.  Last time I checked, it wasn't 
possible to watch TV while driving a car, sleeping, riding a bicycle, going to 
church, riding the subway, flying in a plane or many other activities. While it 
is possible to watch a mini tv while watching a home TV, I suspect that few 
people able to watch both at the same time will ever want to do so.  ("March 
Madness" might be an exception, but hoops isn't my thing, and idea of watchi 
two college hoops matches at the same time would overtax my multitasking 
"skills.")

I predict (again) that mobile TV will increase "people using television" by no 
more than 2%, and even that will only happen at times of high demand, like if 
the Superbowl were so available.  Weekly cume will be perhaps as high as 3% of 
the marketplace.

That just begs the next question, when TV ratings are based on PUT and not the 
demographics of Homes using television.

I will concede that mobile TV will be able to send blip-verts and three minute 
mobi-soaps to trendy youngsters driving around on their mopeds and Hondas, and 
that these folks are otherwise difficult to reach.  However, that isn't exactly 
the market that existing advertisers want to reach.

A better bet would be zoned/targeted advertising or something closer to the 
google advertising model.

John Willkie


 





 
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------
You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways:

- Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at 
FreeLists.org 

- By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word 
unsubscribe in the subject line.

Other related posts: