[opendtv] Huh?
- From: John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Tue, 21 Mar 2006 05:28:51 +0000 (GMT+00:00)
Mark Shubin reported:
"Most media outlets report the results of a survey showing at 3/4 of
respondents aren't interested in watching TV programs or movies on their mobile
phones as indicating there's no business there. If the surveys are true, the
other quarter could represent a higher number of viewers than almost any movie
or TV show:
<http://broadcastengineering.com/newsletters/news_tech/20060315/#>"
Somehow, that doesn't pass the smell test. Sure, the number could represent
higher numbers of viewers than almost any movie or tv show. Similar studies
"predicted" the success of the Edsel, CBS's EVR and the election of John Kerry
in 2004. Basically, people were either saying that other people would like
the item, or weren't considering the alternatives.
So, discount that number by at least 50%, but I'd go at least 80%. So, maybe
the real number is about 5% say they're interested in mobile TV. Before they
consider the per-minute cost.
Then, consider the content alternatives. What content is available or will be
available and how long will the content run for? Having a three minute show
compete with a 30 minute one is a laugh.
Then, there are alternative uses of time. Last time I checked, it wasn't
possible to watch TV while driving a car, sleeping, riding a bicycle, going to
church, riding the subway, flying in a plane or many other activities. While it
is possible to watch a mini tv while watching a home TV, I suspect that few
people able to watch both at the same time will ever want to do so. ("March
Madness" might be an exception, but hoops isn't my thing, and idea of watchi
two college hoops matches at the same time would overtax my multitasking
"skills.")
I predict (again) that mobile TV will increase "people using television" by no
more than 2%, and even that will only happen at times of high demand, like if
the Superbowl were so available. Weekly cume will be perhaps as high as 3% of
the marketplace.
That just begs the next question, when TV ratings are based on PUT and not the
demographics of Homes using television.
I will concede that mobile TV will be able to send blip-verts and three minute
mobi-soaps to trendy youngsters driving around on their mopeds and Hondas, and
that these folks are otherwise difficult to reach. However, that isn't exactly
the market that existing advertisers want to reach.
A better bet would be zoned/targeted advertising or something closer to the
google advertising model.
John Willkie
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