[opendtv] Re: How Do I Keep My Favorite Shows?

  • From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2010 22:26:47 -0400

At 3:53 PM -0500 8/23/10, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:

What math? If 85 to 90 percent of households already subscribe to MVPDs, my point is that those who don't subscribe are not going to be won over so easily. The math says, you either reach them via FOTA TV (either your own stations or affiliates, it's up to the congloms), or you lose them.

You do the math.

Lose 10% of your viewers - gain $20 billion in revenue out of a total of $50 billion that the networks and broadcasters collect each year.

And some portion of the 10% will subscribe to lifeline cable if they lose FOTA.

To be completely fair, the 10% who still use antennas make up far more than 10% of the audience for network TV shows. Might be as high as 30%...

But the $20 billion and 100% of retrans consent fees is massive by comparison to the potential loss of audience.


From the affiliate's viewpoint, staying afloat will most likely require a different solution now than it did before. More choice of cheaper shows is obviously successful with MVPDs. To some extent, FOTA will have to go that way too. With DTV multicasting, it can. For an affiliate, this could be done with extra cheaper material from the same conglom, or from other sources. The point is, you're not serving the same type of consumer as MVPDs.

And maybe M/H will help too.

Not a bad analysis here Bert. Clearly broadcasters must adapt or die.

The story I just posted about Sinclair adding a Contry Music Channel could be a leading indicator...

Regards
Craig


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