[opendtv] Re: FCC Eliminates Simulcast Rules

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> A "good DTT scheme" would deliver a significant
> cross section of the most popular broadcast and
> cable networks (at least 30 channels), ALL of which
> would be available in the free and clear.  This
> MIGHT be an adequate incentive for consumers to
> spend $150 or more to upgrade each of their old
> analog sets.

Even that would be feasible, if the major networks
owned their own local transmitting stations. The
media giants would have no reason to insist that
cable systems carry their entire DTT multiplex, if
the media giant already had lots of their content
on the cable system. The media conglomerate could
instead design its OTA network to include a
different mix of products. What would they have to
lose?

The affiliate model is different, I think, in that
the affiliate's choice of multicasts would have no
other way of getting to the cable system than must
carry.

> If what you are trying to say were true, then
> the conglomerates could add more networks to the
> MVPD systems - where 85% of the viewers are -
> and they would attract MORE eyeballs.

You're finally catching on, Craig, except not quite.

By your reasoning, cable systems would have failed
from the start. The media giants would have "no
reason," you would argue, to "fragment their
audience" by providing 90 percent of the content
cable systems carry. They would stick with their
one 6 MHz NTSC channel per market.

Funny, huh? Your reasoning doesn't work.

To make an OTA system that attracts more viewers
for a given network, some by stealing from
multichannel systems, some by stealing from the
competing *networks*, some by just adding people
who would otherwise be doing something else, the
OTA networks need to add choice.

As you mentioned, we are dealing with a saturated
marketplace. Like the marketplace for
automobiles. What the seller does in this case is
fight for market share. Not necessarily=20
increasing aggregate viewership (although I'm not
discounting that possibility either for OTA
viewership).

> Would you/they like more choice? Certainly, if
> it is free.

Correct.

> If you were willing to pay, you/they could get
> greatly improved choice from cable or DBS now.

And since I'm not willing to pay, unless and until
all other options go away, then each of the media
giants can only tempt my eyeballs with *one*
program stream, as things are today with analog.

Instead, if ABC, for example, offered me two or
three FTA streams, while NBC and CBS only offered
me one, I would be two or three times more likely
to watch something from ABC as I am now.

So NBC and CBS would play a catch-up game and
also provide more choice, to compete against ABC.

That's how you get an OTA system that works.

All it takes is for *one* network to start
offering something better than the others. That's
all. And the consumer wins.

Bert
 
 
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