[opendtv] Re: Delay
- From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2006 16:32:33 -0500
On 12/7/06, John Golitsis <john@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
How 'bout you go ask all those consumers clamoring to purchase HDTV
sets this holiday season if they would have minded not having the
option this year so that the nation could adopt COFDM instead of 8VSB.
They'll all look at you as a lunatic. The consumers always right!
60% of those who are buying HDTV sets seem happy to buy them with no
HD source at all so they would not have been impacted.
88% of the remaining 40% have cable or satellite, most of them would
not have been impacted.
If we had adopted a COFDM based modulation in 2000 I don't think
anyone who wanted to buy an HDTV set this Christmas would have been
impacted.
If we had only allowed a COFDM based modulation, as Sinclair asked, in
any year since 2000 with the right safe-gaurds I don't think anyone
would have been impacted at any stage up till now.
I think you could introduce a second modulation without disrupting
anything if done right. The onus could be put on the back of those who
want to use the new modulation. Since to make it successful they would
have to seed the market with enough receivers consumers would possibly
be the beneficieries of a new free receiver. In fact I am sure of it.
Bob Miller
On 6-Dec-06, at 7:23 PM, Bob Miller wrote:
> The whole argument over 8-VSB/COFDM back in 199/2000 revolved around
> the word "delay". Even talking about the problems of 8-VSB was termed
> a "delaying tactic". The horror of missing the numbers for one quarter
> for the CEA crowd crowded out any possibility of honest discourse.
>
> Congressman Dingel told the DoD to but out, stop talking about
> homeland security issues and COFDM because selling HDTV sets is the
> most important thing and we can broach no "DELAY". Sinclair was tarred
> with the same term. Sinclair would delay the sale of high margin HDTV
> sets.
>
> OTA DTV and 8-VSB with no delay was going to drive the sale of HDTV
> sets and make billions for CEA companies.
>
> Well six or seven years later we can look back and see that OTA DTV
> with 8-VSB did not drive sales of HDTV sets. If 50 to 60% of those who
> have purchased an HDTV set have NO HD service of any kind including
> OTA then why did they buy their HDTV?
>
> If we know that 88% of households (J.D. Powers) have cable and
> satellite, that 2% have no TV at all and that another 3% steals cable
> or satellite, we have around 7% who still depend on OTA for TV.
>
> And we know....
>
> "While high-def sets are in nearly 25 million U.S. homes, industry
> officials estimate that less than 10 million actually have the tuners
> necessary to watch high-def signals."
>
> http://www.tvpredictions.com/directvsubs110806.htm
>
> That's 40% of HD households that have actual HD when all they
> supposedly have to do is buy an STB and antenna or maybe just the
> antenna to get HD. Obviously something other than OTA DTV drove at
> least 60% of sales. Obviously at least 60% of HD buyers don't even
> know of OTA HDTV or don't want it for some reason.
>
> Of the 40% who have HD service I would expect, they being the most
> affluent part of our society, that most have cable or satellite.
>
> Who then is getting their HD fix from OTA? How many of those 10
> million or 40%?
>
> How many of the seven percent who still depend on OTA are getting
> HDTV OTA?
>
> How many are going to stick with OTA HD of those who have it now?
> How many cable or satellite subscribers will switch to or add OTA?
> How many satellite subscribers now use OTA because they have to?
> How many of the seven percent who depend on OTA analog will switch to
> OTA digital at analog shut down?
> How many of those seven percent OTA dependent will be wooed away by
> cable and satellite around analog shut down?
>
> I suggest that OTA HDTV represents from 1 to 2 percent now and will
> climb to 3 to 4 percent after analog shut down max.
>
> Not many IMO. Not enough to justify maintaining free OTA broadcasting
> on all that spectrum.
>
> What if we had talked about doing a multicast DTV like the UK but with
> HD interspersed with the SD unlike OZ where multicast was outlawed?
> What if we had a modulation that worked well mobile and fixed?
>
> I would bet that OTA would have driven HD far more than it has. That
> there would be more OTA receivers in the US today than households, and
> that all thing OTA including HD would be in the ascendant instead of
> the gutter.
>
> As it is HD is still being driven by DVDs. More HD sets will be sold
> this Christmas than HD services. And I mean that for every 100 HDTV
> sets sold less than 40 new HD services will be sold. So the percentage
> of HD owners who have some kind of HD service, 40%, is going down.
>
> In the end virtually all of us will have HDTV sets, we will all have
> HD service, I take that as a given.
>
> But will any of us have free OTA HD and does it matter? I don't know.
>
> One thing I do know, 8-VSB has DELAYED HDTV sales.
>
> Bob Miller
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