[opendtv] Re: DTV Delay Bill Introduced

At 11:08 AM -0500 1/21/09, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:


Did I imply otherwise, ever?
I do not have the time or patience to review years of archives to prove a point.
Let's just say that you have been one of the main participants in the discussion about the interpretation of the 85% rule, and that you always have tried to get the last word... 



Look back at the subject heading of those Topica posts: Broadcasters
hate digital-TV proposal. Why did they hate that interpretation? Because
it would have them shut down OTA NTSC before enough OTA customers had
switched over to digital. That's all there was to it.
Broadcasters were RESPONSIBLE for the 85% rule; kinda difficult to say they hated it.
They knew that it would be impossible to shut them down because the rule was open to interpretation and could be litigated for years. 


The FCC, however, needed to push their agenda, in order to free up
spectrum.
The FCC had nothing to do with the amendment to the 1997 Balanced Budget Act that imposed the new rules, which were specifically created to overrule the FCC 2006 deadline. 




 The broadcasters WANT the transition to end.


Yes, now. Having the hard date forced on the viewing public, there is
now nothing but additional costs involved in your "retaining the NTSC
franchise." So now it makes sense to hurry this thing through, at least
for the broadcast stations, if not for the major networks themselves,
apparently. So much for retaining the NTSC franchise (although I must
confess, I never fully understood what that meant to you).


There are three factors at work here.

The costs associated with simulcasting are certainly the major factor.
But the main issue was retransmission consent. When the rules were imposed in 1997 the FCC had not yet ruled that the primary digital channel of a broadcaster would be covered by retrans consent. Even after the FCC did rule that the primary channel would qualify for retrans consent, the broadcasters still lobbied hard for ALL of the services in the multiplex to be covered.
And then there is the third major factor - the economic demise of the broadcast industry.
The precipitous decline in broadcast ratings has changed the fundamentals of the business, not to mention the precipitous decline in the influence of the NAB on politicians. By 2006 the broadcasters no longer wielded enough power to prevent Congress from imposing a hard deadline; meanwhile, those who coveted the spectrum to be recovered were gaining in influence, as the politicians became far more obsessed with the need for new revenues as budget deficits spun out of control. 


By the way, Craig, I also predicted that the STBs would make a tidy
profit for at least some time. They would sell quite well during the
final transition period.
Hmmm. can you provide ANY evidence that these boxes have been profitable? I seem to remember that you bought at least one at fire sale prices.
No doubt the CE industry is making a few bucks on the boxes they have developed for the NTIA coupon program - why not get a cut of the government cheese? But the stores are filed with stacks of these boxes that HAVE NOT sold. It is unlikely that the NTIA will use all of the money available for these boxes due to the poor redemption rate. What is far more important is that the options for full featured HD capable boxes are still very limited; the market for these boxes is very small, due in part of the requirement to include ATSC receivers in new TVs. 


And, they certainly have done, by any measure.
Even though the CE manufacturers, for whatever reason, had to be dragged
in kicking ans scremaning to make them available. (Back in 2004-2005
time frame, it was practically impossible to find STBs in stores, and
completely impossible to get any up-do-date 5th gen STB products.
Remember?)
By any measure the NTIA boxes have NOT been a huge hit, nor have they been a big revenue generator for the CE industry. Let's see whether all of the funds for these boxes are actually used. My educated guess is that there will be a bunch of these boxes on fire sale in a few months for less than $50 WITHOUT a coupon. 

Regards
Craig


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